7617 Willowbrook Cir

Lakes of the North, MI 49659

$119,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 938 sqft · Built 1979 · Manufactured · Pending · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,019/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$32
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $44/mo
• Annual: $527/yr
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.58%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($527/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (14.4% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $102k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#511 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Mancelona Public Schools (rural): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #310 of 540 in MI (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 101 units permitted in Antrim County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Antrim County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $119k implies a 358% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.