7617 Willowbrook Cir · Lakes of the North, MI 49659

$119,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 938 sqft · Manufactured public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1979 0.50 ac lot $127/sqft · at area comps Est $114k · at est. $32/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your Wooded Retreat! This fully furnished home is move in ready to enjoy the beauty of the coming Northern Michigan summer. This charming property blends modern comfort with nature's serenity, offering the perfect escape with fun-filled amenities. Enjoy private beach access, an indoor pool & hot tub at the clubhouse, and members rates at the beautiful golf course. Have peace of mind knowing many upgrades have been made including new hot water heater and roof in 2019, high efficiency furnace in 2021, electrical panel upgrades in 2024, and a full bathroom renovation in 2023.

Key facts

• Hot tub
• Clubhouse
• Private beach access

Tags

• PRIVATE BEACH ACCESS
• INDOOR POOL
• HOT TUB
• CLUBHOUSE
• GOLF COURSE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee ($387 / year); Community amenities: pool, clubhouse, golf, tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no garage)
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Ground-level entry with steps; Metal siding construction; Other roof type
• Construction: Metal siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); Beach access; Paved road

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Window cooling units
• Interior features: Smart thermostat; Furnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($527/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $102k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#511 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Mancelona Public Schools (rural): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #310 of 540 in MI (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 101 units permitted in Antrim County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Antrim County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $119k implies a 358% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $101,860 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.58%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,837
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: 4.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-16,511
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-10,870
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49659

• Home prices YoY: -29.7%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,019 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $662/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $963

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectricpool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $119,000 Pending 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 44 DOM

   Show marketing remark (596 chars)

   Welcome to your Wooded Retreat! This fully furnished home is move in ready to enjoy the beauty of the coming Northern Michigan summer. This charming property blends modern comfort with nature's serenity, offering the perfect escape with fun-filled amenities. Enjoy private beach access, an indoor pool & hot tub at the clubhouse, and members rates at the beautiful golf course. Have peace of mind knowing many upgrades have been made including new hot water heater and roof in 2019, high efficiency furnace in 2021, electrical panel upgrades in 2024, and a full bathroom renovation in 2023.

3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $119,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $119,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $119,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-04-30
    listed $119,000 Active 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    Welcome to your Wooded Retreat! This fully furnished home is move in ready to enjoy the beauty of the coming Northern Michigan summer. This charming property blends modern comfort with nature's serenity, offering the perfect escape with fun-filled amenities. Enjoy private beach access, an indoor pool & hot tub at the clubhouse, and members rates at the beautiful golf course. Have peace of mind knowing many upgrades have been made including new hot water heater and roof in 2019, high efficiency furnace in 2021, electrical panel upgrades in 2024, and a full bathroom renovation in 2023.

14. 2026-04-30
    listed $119,000 Active 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    Welcome to your Wooded Retreat! This fully furnished home is move in ready to enjoy the beauty of the coming Northern Michigan summer. This charming property blends modern comfort with nature's serenity, offering the perfect escape with fun-filled amenities. Enjoy private beach access, an indoor pool & hot tub at the clubhouse, and members rates at the beautiful golf course. Have peace of mind knowing many upgrades have been made including new hot water heater and roof in 2019, high efficiency furnace in 2021, electrical panel upgrades in 2024, and a full bathroom renovation in 2023.

15. 2017-11-09
    soldstatus $26,000

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Priced to sell this property is right in the heart of Lakes of the North with many amenities to choose from. Cross country skiing , golfing , snowmobiling, many more to list. Seller is very motivated to sell and to bring ALL offers. This property is also being SOLD AS-IS

16. 2017-11-09
    soldstatus $26,000

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Priced to sell this property is right in the heart of Lakes of the North with many amenities to choose from. Cross country skiing , golfing , snowmobiling, many more to list. Seller is very motivated to sell and to bring ALL offers. This property is also being SOLD AS-IS

17. 2017-11-09
    soldstatus $26,000

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Priced to sell this property is right in the heart of Lakes of the North with many amenities to choose from. Cross country skiing , golfing , snowmobiling, many more to list. Seller is very motivated to sell and to bring ALL offers. This property is also being SOLD AS-IS

18. 2016-11-27
    listed $31,500

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Priced to sell this property is right in the heart of Lakes of the North with many amenities to choose from. Cross country skiing , golfing , snowmobiling, many more to list. Seller is very motivated to sell and to bring ALL offers. This property is also being SOLD AS-IS

19. 2016-11-27
    listed $31,500

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Priced to sell this property is right in the heart of Lakes of the North with many amenities to choose from. Cross country skiing , golfing , snowmobiling, many more to list. Seller is very motivated to sell and to bring ALL offers. This property is also being SOLD AS-IS

20. 2005-10-19
    soldstatus $34,000
21. 2002-10-12
    soldstatus $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $662 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,247 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$585/yr (+$49/mo · 88.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,223
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$662
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$978
• − Management: −$978
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable loss: −$1,501
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$360
• After-tax cash flow: $887/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mancelona Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2622350
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $39,613
• Composite: 28.89/100
• National rank: #6639
• State rank: #310 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lakes of the North

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #511
• US rank: #15243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakes of the North, MI
• Population (ZIP): 7,226

Population outlook (Antrim County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,804 people
• By 2030: 20,814 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 18,394 · -15.6%
• By 2050: 15,981 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 11,712 · -46.3%
• By 2100: 7,651 · -64.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Antrim

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.8) · D 37.5% · R 61.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.3pp · 2024: -23.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.8 2020: R+23.8 2016: R+29.6 2012: R+21.3 2008: R+10.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.79%
• Current HPI: 245.5937
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+271.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-06-13 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $119,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $119,000 REALCOMP
• 2017-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records
• 2017-11-09 Sold (MLS) $26,000 REALCOMP
• 2017-11-09 Sold (MLS) $26,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-11-27 Listed $31,500 REALCOMP
• 2016-11-27 Listed $31,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 2002-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $662 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.