183 Blue Bell Ave

Luray, VA 22835

$209,900C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · Built 1933 · SingleFamily · Pending · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,657/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $50/mo
• Annual: $598/yr
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.02%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $58,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($598/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (21.1% below list).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $166k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#93 in VA, #3,012 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Page County Public School District (rural): math 42% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #96 of 131 in VA (top 73%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1933 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 164 units permitted in Page County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Page County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $210k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.2% in Luray — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1933 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.