183 Blue Bell Ave · Luray, VA 22835

$209,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 1933 1.00 ac lot $121/sqft · 24% below area Est $269k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located just off Main Street in the heart of the Town of Luray, 183 Blue Bell Avenue offers a rare opportunity with flexible B-1 zoning allowing for residential, office, retail, or investment use. Built in 1933, this character-filled property blends historic charm with practical updates and strong visibility in a prime in-town location. Offering approximately 1,700 square feet of finished space, the layout includes four bedrooms, one remodeled full bathroom, a spacious living room, dedicated dining area, and kitchen space. A full unfinished basement provides excellent storage space. The property has a proven track record of versatility - previously operating as a record store and most recently used as a residential rental. Abundant on-site parking enhances its appeal for business use, clients, or tenants. Recent improvements include fresh paint throughout, newer windows, a remodeled bathroom, and freshly painted and sealed porch and roof (Fall 2025), offering peace of mind for the next owner. Whether you're seeking a centrally located office, boutique retail space, short- or long-term rental investment, or a unique primary residence with business flexibility, this property delivers location, visibility, and opportunity.

Key facts

• Strong visibility
• Historic charm
• Flexible b-1 zoning

Tags

• FLEXIBLE B-1 ZONING
• HISTORIC CHARM
• STRONG VISIBILITY
• PRIME IN-TOWN LOCATION
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• EXCELLENT STORAGE SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($598/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.2% in Luray — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#93 in VA, #3,012 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Page County Public School District (rural): math 42% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #96 of 131 in VA (top 73%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 164 units permitted in Page County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Page County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $210k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1933 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,657 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1933 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.02%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,292
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: -22.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Bristol Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,693 (-2%)	2mo	$120,000	$71	80
16 Park Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,746 (+1%)	9mo	$320,000	$183	79
206 Woodland Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,727 (-0%)	10mo	$212,500	$123	76
125 High St	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (+2%)	1mo	$305,000	$173	74
42 Oakcrest Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,717 (-1%)	9mo	$335,000	$195	72
302 Woodland Ave	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,625 (-6%)	1mo	$221,500	$136	72
13 Independence Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,758 (+1%)	13mo	$354,000	$201	65
11 Independence Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,625 (-6%)	4mo	$359,900	$221	63
1 Rowe Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-5%)	4mo	$370,000	$224	60
123 E Main St	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,757 (+1%)	9mo	$299,000	$170	56
66 N Broad St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,654 (-5%)	9mo	$234,000	$141	43
402 Luray Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,567 (-10%)	14mo	$300,000	$191	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-30,930
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-23,221
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22835

• Home prices YoY: -3.7%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,657 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $848/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,593

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-07
   price $209,900 1239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1239 chars)

   Located just off Main Street in the heart of the Town of Luray, 183 Blue Bell Avenue offers a rare opportunity with flexible B-1 zoning allowing for residential, office, retail, or investment use. Built in 1933, this character-filled property blends historic charm with practical updates and strong visibility in a prime in-town location. Offering approximately 1,700 square feet of finished space, the layout includes four bedrooms, one remodeled full bathroom, a spacious living room, dedicated dining area, and kitchen space. A full unfinished basement provides excellent storage space. The property has a proven track record of versatility - previously operating as a record store and most recently used as a residential rental. Abundant on-site parking enhances its appeal for business use, clients, or tenants. Recent improvements include fresh paint throughout, newer windows, a remodeled bathroom, and freshly painted and sealed porch and roof (Fall 2025), offering peace of mind for the next owner. Whether you're seeking a centrally located office, boutique retail space, short- or long-term rental investment, or a unique primary residence with business flexibility, this property delivers location, visibility, and opportunity.

2. 2026-04-02
   price $219,900 1239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1239 chars)

   Located just off Main Street in the heart of the Town of Luray, 183 Blue Bell Avenue offers a rare opportunity with flexible B-1 zoning allowing for residential, office, retail, or investment use. Built in 1933, this character-filled property blends historic charm with practical updates and strong visibility in a prime in-town location. Offering approximately 1,700 square feet of finished space, the layout includes four bedrooms, one remodeled full bathroom, a spacious living room, dedicated dining area, and kitchen space. A full unfinished basement provides excellent storage space. The property has a proven track record of versatility - previously operating as a record store and most recently used as a residential rental. Abundant on-site parking enhances its appeal for business use, clients, or tenants. Recent improvements include fresh paint throughout, newer windows, a remodeled bathroom, and freshly painted and sealed porch and roof (Fall 2025), offering peace of mind for the next owner. Whether you're seeking a centrally located office, boutique retail space, short- or long-term rental investment, or a unique primary residence with business flexibility, this property delivers location, visibility, and opportunity.

3. 2026-02-18
   listed $225,000 Active 1239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1239 chars)

   Located just off Main Street in the heart of the Town of Luray, 183 Blue Bell Avenue offers a rare opportunity with flexible B-1 zoning allowing for residential, office, retail, or investment use. Built in 1933, this character-filled property blends historic charm with practical updates and strong visibility in a prime in-town location. Offering approximately 1,700 square feet of finished space, the layout includes four bedrooms, one remodeled full bathroom, a spacious living room, dedicated dining area, and kitchen space. A full unfinished basement provides excellent storage space. The property has a proven track record of versatility - previously operating as a record store and most recently used as a residential rental. Abundant on-site parking enhances its appeal for business use, clients, or tenants. Recent improvements include fresh paint throughout, newer windows, a remodeled bathroom, and freshly painted and sealed porch and roof (Fall 2025), offering peace of mind for the next owner. Whether you're seeking a centrally located office, boutique retail space, short- or long-term rental investment, or a unique primary residence with business flexibility, this property delivers location, visibility, and opportunity.

4. 2007-06-27
   soldstatus $125,000 155-char remark

   Show marketing remark (155 chars)

   Nice older home is hardwood floors thoughout. Wrap-around concret porch. Full unfinished basement. Zoned Business and can be used as residence or business.

5. 2007-06-27
   historical 155-char remark

   Show marketing remark (155 chars)

   Nice older home is hardwood floors thoughout. Wrap-around concret porch. Full unfinished basement. Zoned Business and can be used as residence or business.

6. 2007-06-27
   soldstatus $125,000

   Show marketing remark (155 chars)

   Nice older home is hardwood floors thoughout. Wrap-around concret porch. Full unfinished basement. Zoned Business and can be used as residence or business.

7. 2006-11-02
   listed $147,000 155-char remark

   Show marketing remark (155 chars)

   Nice older home is hardwood floors thoughout. Wrap-around concret porch. Full unfinished basement. Zoned Business and can be used as residence or business.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $848 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,721 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$874/yr (+$73/mo · 103.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,879
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$848
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,590
• − Management: −$1,590
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$3,063
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$735
• After-tax cash flow: $1,333/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Page County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102850
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,808
• Composite: 43.77/100
• National rank: #2943
• State rank: #96 of 131 in VA

Livability — Luray

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #93
• US rank: #3012

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Luray, VA
• City population: 11,358
• Population (ZIP): 11,358

Population outlook (Page County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,843 people
• By 2030: 22,147 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 20,427 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 18,461 · -19.2%
• By 2075: 14,363 · -37.1%
• By 2100: 10,678 · -53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Black 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Arabic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Page

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.1) · D 22.5% · R 76.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -54.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.1 2020: R+50.6 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+25.7 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.88%
• Current HPI: 312.1156
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+42.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $209,900 HRAR
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $219,900 HRAR
• 2026-02-18 Listed $225,000 HRAR
• 2007-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2007-06-27 Delisted — MRIS
• 2007-06-27 Sold (MLS) $125,000 MRIS
• 2006-11-02 Listed $147,000 MRIS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $848 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.