12 Hidden Valley Dr

Middletown, NY 10941

$120,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Active · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,758/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$928
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-369/mo
• Annual: $-4,425/yr
• Cap rate: 2.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.17%
• DSCR: 0.41
• 1% rule: 1.46%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-369 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $67k (44.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $67k (44.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#79 in NY, #1,219 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-.
• Valley Central School District (Montgomery) (rural): math 54% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #299 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 548 students, 34% FRL); Valley Central Middle School (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #480 of 729 statewide, top 66%, 982 students, 41% FRL); Valley Central High School (math 95% / reading 87%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 1,346 students, 39% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 53% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 89 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 3.7% in Middletown — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.