12 Hidden Valley Dr

Scotchtown, NY 10941

$125,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Active · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,340/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$928
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $57/mo
• Annual: $685/yr
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.96%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 1.87%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($685/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#515 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Valley Central School District (Montgomery) (rural): math 54% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #299 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 548 students, 34% FRL); Valley Central Middle School (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #480 of 729 statewide, top 66%, 982 students, 41% FRL); Valley Central High School (math 95% / reading 87%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 1,346 students, 39% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 57 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.7% in Scotchtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.