12 Hidden Valley Dr · Middletown, NY 10941

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 106 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1999 Good condition $104/sqft · 19% below area Est $149k · 19% under $928/mo HOA · 53% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.4/30.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.8

Listing remarks

Welcome to 12 Hidden Valley Drive in the desirable Valley View West community, Scotchtown! This move-in-ready 2-bedroom, 2-bath home (1,152 sq ft) has been thoughtfully updated and is ready for its next owner.

Key facts

• Built 1999
• Listed 105 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-369 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $67k (44.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (44.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 3.7% in Middletown — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#79 in NY, #1,219 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-.
• Valley Central School District (Montgomery) (rural): math 54% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #299 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 548 students, 34% FRL); Valley Central Middle School (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #480 of 729 statewide, top 66%, 982 students, 41% FRL); Valley Central High School (math 95% / reading 87%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 1,346 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 89 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 53% of rent.

Recommended offer $66,638 (44.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 2.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.17%
• DSCR: 0.41
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,000
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -19.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32 Hidden Valley Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+12%)	1mo	$151,000	$117	74
509 5th Ave	0.33mi	2/2.0	924 (-20%)	1mo	$149,000	$161	59
406 4th Ave	0.31mi	2/1.0	910 (-21%)	2mo	$30,000	$33	55
208 2nd Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+17%)	17mo	$175,500	$131	44
1650 Route 211 E	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,124 (-2%)	33mo	$212,000	$189	44
138 Camp Orange Rd	0.81mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,256 (+9%)	9mo	$325,000	$259	34
26 Ferrara Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,424 (+24%)	26mo	$352,000	$247	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-42,070
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -52.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.89×
• Total profit: $-63,360
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 2.0 mo (50%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $150,000 ($130/sqft)
• Median days on market: 219 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -0.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 10941

• Home prices YoY: -22.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,758 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$928
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,224

Max offer price $66,638

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-286	-5% $-327	+0% $-369	+5% $-410	+10% $-452
Rent	-10% $-508	-5% $-438	+0% $-369	+5% $-299	+10% $-230
Rate	-1.0pp $-308	-0.5pp $-338	base $-369	+0.5pp $-400	+1.0pp $-432

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Property has an associationMonthly association fee of $928Association fee includes water and sewer

Exterior

• Parking: No carportNo designated parking features
• Utilities: Public sewerNo additional utilities listed
• Home design: Mobile homeLiving area reported from public records
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl sidingShed(s)Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: OvenRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioningForced air heatingPropane heatingOther heating
• Interior features: DeckOther interior features

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $120,000 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $120,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $120,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $120,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $120,000 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $120,000 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $120,000 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $120,000 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $120,000 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $120,000 Active 85 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 82 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 81 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $125,000 Active 80 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $125,000 Active 79 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $125,000 Active 78 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $125,000 Active 77 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $125,000 Active 76 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $125,000 Active 75 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $125,000 Active 74 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $125,000 Active 73 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $125,000 Active 72 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $125,000 Active 71 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $125,000 Active 70 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $125,000 Active 69 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $125,000 Active 68 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $125,000 Active 67 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $125,000 Active 66 DOM
35. 2026-08-15
    remarks 683-char remark
36. 2026-08-15
    days on market $125,000 Active 65 DOM
37. 2026-08-13
    days on market $125,000 Active 64 DOM
38. 2026-08-12
    days on market $125,000 Active 63 DOM
39. 2026-08-11
    days on market $125,000 Active 62 DOM
40. 2026-08-10
    days on market $125,000 Active 61 DOM
41. 2026-08-09
    days on market $125,000 Active 60 DOM
42. 2026-08-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 59 DOM
43. 2026-08-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 58 DOM
44. 2026-08-06
    days on market $125,000 Active 57 DOM
45. 2026-08-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 56 DOM
46. 2026-08-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 55 DOM
47. 2026-08-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 54 DOM
48. 2026-07-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 51 DOM
49. 2026-07-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 50 DOM
50. 2026-07-29
    days on market $125,000 Active 49 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,091
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,687
• − Management: −$1,687
• − HOA: −$11,136
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$6,032
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,448
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,978/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,760–$17,280 screening

This well-maintained mobile home in a desirable park offers a good starting point for a cosmetic renovation to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace deck and ramp — Improves safety and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and attracts buyers ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 55/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Montgomery Elementary School F NY #1,444/2,108 Nat'l #19,648/41,679 Middle Valley Central Middle School F NY #480/729 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Valley Central High School A+ NY #203/1,100 Nat'l #335/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Central School District (Montgomery)
• NCES district ID: 3619680
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $69,186
• Composite: 47.53/100
• National rank: #2271
• State rank: #299 of 590 in NY

A Composite livability gradescore 82/100

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #1219

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C- Cost of living C Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 379,830 people
• City population: 68,033
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 14,422
• Household income: $99,238
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 21% Two or more races 16% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.38%
• Current HPI: 326.3597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.15%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Property has an associationMonthly association fee of $928Association fee includes water and sewer

Exterior

• Parking: No carportNo designated parking features
• Utilities: Public sewerNo additional utilities listed
• Home design: Mobile homeLiving area reported from public records
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl sidingShed(s)Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: OvenRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioningForced air heatingPropane heatingOther heating
• Interior features: DeckOther interior features

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $125,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-29 Coming Soon $125,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid