16077 N Pinnacle Cir

Willow, AK 99654

$149,500D+

2 bd · None ba · 656 sqft · Built 2007 · Other · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,488/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax + insurance: −$249
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $142/mo
• Annual: $1,709/yr
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.08%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $41,860

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/?-bath other listed at $150k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (0.5% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $149k (0.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#86 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willow Elementary (math 54% / reading 64%, grade B-, #22 of 156 statewide, top 14%, 135 students, 65% FRL); Houston Middle School (329 students, 0% FRL); Houston High School (math 22% / reading 31%, grade F, #41 of 61 statewide, top 67%, 358 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 514 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.1% in Willow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Kitchen — No photos of the kitchen are provided, but the listing suggests it's about 95% complete, implying major work is needed.
• Major: Bathrooms — No photos of the bathrooms are provided, but the listing suggests they are about 95% complete, implying major work is needed.
• Major: Flooring — No photos of the flooring are provided, but the listing suggests it's about 95% complete, implying major work is needed.
• Major: Interior walls/paint — No photos of the interior walls/paint are provided, but the listing suggests it's about 95% complete, implying major work is needed.
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals are provided, but the listing suggests they are about 95% complete, implying major work is needed.