16077 N Pinnacle Cir · Willow, AK 99654

$149,500

2 bd · None ba · 656 sqft · Other · 9 Days on market

Built 2007 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Cabin with Denali Views on Hatcher Pass Road (Willow Fishhook) in Willow! Inside Finish work about 95% complete. Basement floor to be finished soon! located on a maintained road with year round access. Small Stream below property. 2 story deck for those sunset views with barbecues and friends! Balcony on 3rd floor. Please call seller for information ! 907-982-2498 !!! unable to respond to emails.

Key facts

• Denali views
• Maintained road
• Balcony

Tags

• DENALI VIEWS
• MAINTAINED ROAD
• YEAR ROUND ACCESS
• SMALL STREAM
• 2 STORY DECK
• BALCONY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/?-bath other listed at $150k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (0.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.1% in Willow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#86 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willow Elementary (math 54% / reading 64%, grade B-, #22 of 156 statewide, top 14%, 135 students, 65% FRL); Houston Middle School (329 students, 0% FRL); Houston High School (math 22% / reading 31%, grade F, #41 of 61 statewide, top 67%, 358 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 514 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $148,806 (0.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.08%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-19,437
• Equity at exit: $22,291

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-21,804
• Equity at exit: $12,926

Cash invested: $41,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99654

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 514
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,488 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,242/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,308

Max offer price $149,500

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $246	-5% $194	+0% $142	+5% $91	+10% $39
Rent	-10% $25	-5% $84	+0% $142	+5% $201	+10% $260
Rate	-1.0pp $218	-0.5pp $180	base $142	+0.5pp $104	+1.0pp $64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,375
• Closing costs: $4,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $149,500 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,500 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,500 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,500 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,500 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 408-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $149,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,857
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,374
• − Property taxes: −$2,242
• − Insurance: −$748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,429
• − Management: −$1,429
• − Depreciation: −$4,349
• Taxable loss: −$714
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$171
• After-tax cash flow: $1,880/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Fair 40/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in fair condition with significant work needed to complete the interior and systems, making it a good candidate for cosmetic renovations to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen — No photos of the kitchen are provided, but the listing suggests it's about 95% complete, implying major work is needed.
• Major Bathrooms — No photos of the bathrooms are provided, but the listing suggests they are about 95% complete, implying major work is needed.
• Major Flooring — No photos of the flooring are provided, but the listing suggests it's about 95% complete, implying major work is needed.
• Major Interior walls/paint — No photos of the interior walls/paint are provided, but the listing suggests it's about 95% complete, implying major work is needed.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals are provided, but the listing suggests they are about 95% complete, implying major work is needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Complete the kitchen, bathrooms, flooring, interior walls/paint, and HVAC/mechanicals — These updates will significantly improve the home's condition and make it move-in ready, enhancing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen · No photos of the kitchen are provided, but the listing suggests it's about 95% complete, implying major work is needed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathrooms · No photos of the bathrooms are provided, but the listing suggests they are about 95% complete, implying major work is needed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · No photos of the flooring are provided, but the listing suggests it's about 95% complete, implying major work is needed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · No photos of the interior walls/paint are provided, but the listing suggests it's about 95% complete, implying major work is needed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals are provided, but the listing suggests they are about 95% complete, implying major work is needed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Complete the kitchen, bathrooms, flooring, interior walls/paint, and HVAC/mechanicals — These updates will significantly improve the home's condition and make it move-in ready, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Willow

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #86
• US rank: #19315

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willow, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• City population: 2,542
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 44,647
• Household income: $97,544
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 872.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 12% Native American 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.68%
• Current HPI: 196.8728
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.04%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $149,500 FSBO.com