4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
2,004 sqft ·
Built 1989
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 176 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$7,066/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$3,409
Tax + insurance
−$980
HOA
−$180
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,484
Net cashflow
$1,013/mo
Annual
$12,156/yr
Cap rate
8.16%
Cash-on-cash
6.68%
DSCR
1.30
1% rule
1.09%
Cash to close
$182,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $650k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $650k).
It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($572k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $572k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 58/100 on livability (#694 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A-, employment B+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
Desert Sands Unified (suburban): math 31% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #199 of 517 in CA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Harry S. Truman Elementary (666 students, 80% FRL); La Quinta Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 754 students, 83% FRL); La Quinta High (math 31% / reading 65%, grade D, #380 of 1,170 statewide, top 33%, 2,500 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 56% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 660 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
10 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.5% rent growth), your $182k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.3% in La Quinta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $7,066/mo this rent would consume 85% of the median local household income ($99k/yr) (locally 1078% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-EX4RKN2XAWHWZJ
· Data 17 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29