451 Hollywood Farm Rd

Passapatanzy, VA 22405

$75,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,822/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $933/mo
• Annual: $11,195/yr
• Cap rate: 21.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.31%
• DSCR: 3.37
• 1% rule: 2.43%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $933 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#382 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Stafford County Public School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #42 of 131 in VA (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ferry Farm Elementary (math 56% / reading 69%, grade B, #476 of 1,108 statewide, top 43%, 595 students, 45% FRL); Donald B. Dixon-Lyle R. Smith Middle (math 48% / reading 71%, grade B, #160 of 342 statewide, top 48%, 894 students, 35% FRL); Stafford Senior High (math 52% / reading 78%, grade B, #210 of 319 statewide, top 66%, 2,117 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 22% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 183 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 361 units permitted in Stafford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stafford County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $75k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 21.2% vs local median 2.6% in Passapatanzy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($128k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.