451 Hollywood Farm Rd · Passapatanzy, VA 22405

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1948 0.50 ac lot Est $60k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Terrific location!. 50 acre lot on Hollywood Farm Rd. DO NOT enter the structure on the property. Structure is a teardown, being sold strictly for land/redevelopment value. Property sold strictly "AS IS". Also listed as a residential listing. VAST2049656 Great opportunity, lots of potential!

Key facts

• Teardown structure
• 50 acre lot
• Sold as is

Tags

• 50 ACRE LOT
• TEARDOWN STRUCTURE
• LAND REDEVELOPMENT VALUE
• SOLD AS IS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: No public sewer system
• Home design: Detached property; 576 finished above-grade square feet (per assessor)
• Construction: Fee simple ownership; Foundation: Other; Other structures include above grade and below grade
• Exterior features: Property is outside city limits; No tidal water on the lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on main level
• Interior features: No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $933 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Cap rate 21.2% vs local median 2.6% in Passapatanzy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#382 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Stafford County Public School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #42 of 131 in VA (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ferry Farm Elementary (math 56% / reading 69%, grade B, #476 of 1,108 statewide, top 43%, 595 students, 45% FRL); Donald B. Dixon-Lyle R. Smith Middle (math 48% / reading 71%, grade B, #160 of 342 statewide, top 48%, 894 students, 35% FRL); Stafford Senior High (math 52% / reading 78%, grade B, #210 of 319 statewide, top 66%, 2,117 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 22% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 183 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 361 units permitted in Stafford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($128k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stafford County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $75k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.31%
• DSCR: 3.37
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $59,904
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
451 Hollywood Farm Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0	576 (0%)	0mo	$60,000	$104	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $48,169
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.82×
• Total profit: $122,200
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22405

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,822 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $984/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $933

Break-even live

Break-even rent $641

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $975	-5% $954	+0% $933	+5% $912	+10% $890
Rent	-10% $789	-5% $861	+0% $933	+5% $1,005	+10% $1,077
Rate	-1.0pp $971	-0.5pp $952	base $933	+0.5pp $913	+1.0pp $894

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-05-21
   listed $75,000 Active 304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   Terrific location!. 50 acre lot on Hollywood Farm Rd. DO NOT enter the structure on the property. Structure is a teardown, being sold strictly for land/redevelopment value. Property sold strictly "AS IS". Also listed as a residential listing. VAST2049656 Great opportunity, lots of potential!

2. 2026-05-21
   listed $75,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   Terrific location!. 50 acre lot on Hollywood Farm Rd. DO NOT enter the structure on the property. Structure is a teardown, being sold strictly for land/redevelopment value. Property sold strictly "AS IS". Also listed as a residential listing. VAST2049656 Great opportunity, lots of potential!

3. 2016-05-19
   soldstatus $35,000
4. 2016-02-01
   soldstatus $37,000
5. 2016-01-30
   soldstatus $2,000 234-char remark

   Show marketing remark (234 chars)

   1/2 acre lot in south Stafford, just a short drive to Route 3 and downtown Fredericksburg. Old home located on property--Value is in the land. Alternative septic system required. Bundle with 2.88 acre lot for sale next door--ST8513942

6. 2016-01-30
   soldstatus $2,000 Sold

   Show marketing remark (234 chars)

   1/2 acre lot in south Stafford, just a short drive to Route 3 and downtown Fredericksburg. Old home located on property--Value is in the land. Alternative septic system required. Bundle with 2.88 acre lot for sale next door--ST8513942

7. 2016-01-11
   status Contract
8. 2015-09-19
   status Active
9. 2015-09-02
   status Contract
10. 2015-08-31
    price $35,000
11. 2015-07-06
    price $45,000
12. 2015-04-16
    price $55,000
13. 2015-04-06
    status Active
14. 2015-03-16
    historical Contingent (Kick Out)
15. 2014-12-05
    listed $65,000 Active
16. 2011-10-02
    historical Expired
17. 2011-10-02
    historical
18. 2011-07-11
    soldstatus $21,231
19. 2010-09-15
    price
20. 2010-05-11
    price
21. 2010-01-21
    price
22. 2009-12-01
    listed Active
23. 2009-12-01
    listed $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $984 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $984 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,865
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$984
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,749
• − Management: −$1,749
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $10,625
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,550
• After-tax cash flow: $8,645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stafford County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103660
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $96,389
• Composite: 54.61/100
• National rank: #1336
• State rank: #42 of 131 in VA

Livability — Passapatanzy

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #382
• US rank: #15403

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Stafford County · 161,536 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 36,890
• Household income: $128,259
• Rent vs Own: 15.9% rent · 84.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 257.0

Population outlook (Stafford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,882 people
• By 2030: 183,934 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 211,031 · +24.2%
• By 2050: 235,391 · +38.6%
• By 2075: 297,080 · +74.9%
• By 2100: 334,680 · +97.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 14% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stafford

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.6% · R 48.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+3.3 2016: R+9.1 2012: R+8.8 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -207.28%
• Current HPI: 287.0876
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.48%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+27.1% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2016-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records
• 2016-01-30 Sold (MLS) $2,000 MRIS
• 2016-01-30 Sold (MLS) $2,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-01-11 Pending — MRIS
• 2015-09-19 Relisted — MRIS
• 2015-09-02 Pending — MRIS
• 2015-08-31 Price Changed $35,000 MRIS
• 2015-07-06 Price Changed $45,000 MRIS
• 2015-04-16 Price Changed $55,000 MRIS
• 2015-04-06 Relisted — MRIS
• 2015-03-16 Contingent — MRIS
• 2014-12-05 Listed $65,000 MRIS
• 2011-10-02 Delisted — MRIS
• 2011-10-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $21,231 Public Records
• 2010-09-15 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2010-05-11 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2010-01-21 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2009-12-01 Listed — MRIS
• 2009-12-01 Listed $59,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $984 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.