5616 NW 37th Lane Rd

Ocala, FL 34482

$290,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,454 sqft · Built 2018 · SingleFamily · Active · 128 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,394/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$450
• HOA: −$527
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $-607/mo
• Annual: $-7,282/yr
• Cap rate: 3.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.97%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $81,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-607 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (37.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (17.4% below list).
• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $183k (37.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.1%/yr); 663 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.