5616 NW 37th Lane Rd · Ocala, FL 34482

$290,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,454 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 2018 5,663 sqft lot $199/sqft · 18% below area Est $355k · 18% under $527/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION! This FULLY FURNISHED home nestled in a PRIVATE CUL de SAC within Ocala Preserve. Located in the 55 plus area of Ocala Preserve, near the new Lake House, the newest amenity in the Preserve. Close to the golf course, walking trails and amenities, this location is one of the best in the community. Welcome to the Rome, built by Shea Homes. This floorplan features a large OPEN Living space and Split bedroom layout plus a Den. The high ceilings and lots of windows allow light to pour into all the rooms in this home. Valuable upgrades in the home include Granite countertops in the kitchen, a fully tiled shower enclosure in the owner's bath, and French doors to the den/bonus space, all contributing to the easy livability of this home. The back lanai is enclosed and screened in with views of the greenspace between properties. Flooring is easy to maintain, neutral tile in the living spaces, with carpet in the bedrooms. This lightly lived in, one owner home is smoke free and ready for new owners. Ocala Preserve HOA includes outdoor landscaping maintenance and watering of the home landscaping and all common areas. Also included is Club Membership with amenities and classes included, and discounts on golf play and restaurant use. High speed internet for streaming services is also part of the HOA. Come see this move in ready home before it is gone!

Key facts

• Den bonus space
• Split bedroom layout
• Close to golf course

Tags

• PRIVATE CUL-DE-SAC
• CLOSE TO GOLF COURSE
• WALKING TRAILS
• LARGE OPEN LIVING SPACE
• SPLIT BEDROOM LAYOUT
• DEN BONUS SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-607 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (37.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (37.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.1%/yr); 663 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,807 (37.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.97%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,610
• List price: $290,000
• Delta: -18.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5361 NW 33rd Pl	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,318 (-9%)	4mo	$230,000	$175	60
4802 NW 39th Street Rd	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,565 (+8%)	1mo	$256,150	$164	53
5472 NW 46th Lane Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,505 (+4%)	8mo	$264,900	$176	50
3901 NW 49th Ct	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,666 (+15%)	20mo	$315,000	$189	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-72,647
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-54,056
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34482

• Rents YoY: 11.1%
• Active inventory: 663
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,394 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$330 /mo · $3,955/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$527
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $-607

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,162

Max offer price $182,807

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5530 NW 40th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,000	$1.23	21d	1	0.20mi
5423 NW 35th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1656	$3,200	$1.93	21d	1	0.29mi
5471 NW 34th St Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1318	$2,900	$2.20	21d	1	0.36mi
3384 NW 54th Ct Ocala, FL	2.0	2.5	1722	$2,300	$1.34	21d	1	0.38mi
4395 NW 55th Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1853	$2,700	$1.46	21d	1	0.40mi
5361 NW 33rd Pl Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1318	$2,500	$1.90	21d	1	0.45mi
5333 NW 33rd Pl Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$2,300	$1.68	13d	1	0.46mi
5191 NW 34th St Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1318	$2,400	$1.82	21d	1	0.49mi
3335 NW 52nd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.5	1318	$2,500	$1.90	21d	1	0.55mi
5521 NW 45th Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1862	$2,600	$1.40	13d	1	0.55mi
5048 NW 35th St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,900	$1.22	13d	1	0.61mi
4122 NW 48th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1816	$1,999	$1.10	13d	1	0.64mi
5416 NW 46th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,300	$1.45	13d	1	0.67mi
5347 NW 46th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1552	$2,550	$1.64	21d	1	0.68mi
5254 NW 43rd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1728	$3,500	$2.03	21d	1	0.70mi
4859 NW 35th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1666	$2,495	$1.50	21d	1	0.70mi
5353 N US Highway 27 Ocala, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1169	$1,785	$1.53	21d	1	0.70mi
5358 NW 48th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,500	$1.60	21d	1	0.73mi
5389 NW 48th Pl Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1552	$2,300	$1.48	21d	1	0.74mi
5375 NW 48th Pl Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1565	$2,350	$1.50	21d	1	0.75mi
5293 NW 48th Pl Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1552	$2,450	$1.58	21d	1	0.79mi
4743 NW 39th Street Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,500	$1.60	21d	1	0.80mi
5237 NW 48th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1552	$4,500	$2.90	21d	1	0.81mi
4110 NW 44th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,400	$1.49	13d	1	0.91mi
4111 NW 44th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,300	$1.53	13d	1	0.92mi
4078 NW 44th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,500	$1.66	21d	1	0.97mi
5391 NW 55th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,650	$1.24	21d	1	1.12mi
5532 NW 57th Pl Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	962	$1,295	$1.35	13d	1	1.35mi
2048 NW 50th Ave Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1062	$2,250	$2.12	21d	1	1.46mi
2038 NW 50th Ave Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1062	$2,250	$2.12	21d	1	1.47mi
2028 NW 50th Ave Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1066	$1,595	$1.50	21d	1	1.47mi
1918 NW 50th Cir Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1061	$2,200	$2.07	21d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $527 · $6,324/yr
• Likely covers: waterinternetlandscaping

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $290,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $295,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $295,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $295,000 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $295,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $295,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $295,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $295,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,000 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,000 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $295,000 Active 109 DOM
17. 2026-02-11
    listed $295,000 Active 1384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1384 chars)

    LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION! This FULLY FURNISHED home nestled in a PRIVATE CUL de SAC within Ocala Preserve. Located in the 55 plus area of Ocala Preserve, near the new Lake House, the newest amenity in the Preserve. Close to the golf course, walking trails and amenities, this location is one of the best in the community. Welcome to the Rome, built by Shea Homes. This floorplan features a large OPEN Living space and Split bedroom layout plus a Den. The high ceilings and lots of windows allow light to pour into all the rooms in this home. Valuable upgrades in the home include Granite countertops in the kitchen, a fully tiled shower enclosure in the owner's bath, and French doors to the den/bonus space, all contributing to the easy livability of this home. The back lanai is enclosed and screened in with views of the greenspace between properties. Flooring is easy to maintain, neutral tile in the living spaces, with carpet in the bedrooms. This lightly lived in, one owner home is smoke free and ready for new owners. Ocala Preserve HOA includes outdoor landscaping maintenance and watering of the home landscaping and all common areas. Also included is Club Membership with amenities and classes included, and discounts on golf play and restaurant use. High speed internet for streaming services is also part of the HOA. Come see this move in ready home before it is gone!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,955 · $330/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,955 · $330/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$3,955
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,298
• − Management: −$2,298
• − HOA: −$6,324
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$12,276
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,946
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ocala

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #8461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 263,375
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,807
• Household income: $65,901
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 282.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.62%
• Current HPI: 194.3857
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.12%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Listed $295,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+23.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,955 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.