8570 Mattson Dr

St. John, IN 46373

$165,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,065/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$282
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $483/mo
• Annual: $5,798/yr
• Cap rate: 9.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.55%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $483 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lake Central School Corporation (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #41 of 301 in IN (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: George Bibich Elementary School (math 67% / reading 62%, grade B, #78 of 994 statewide, top 9%, 572 students, 19% FRL); Michael Grimmer Middle School (math 31% / reading 45%, grade F, #136 of 330 statewide, top 44%, 754 students, 32% FRL); Lake Central High School (math 46% / reading 74%, grade C+, #46 of 369 statewide, top 13%, 3,069 students, 23% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 260 active listings in the ZIP; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.6% in St. John — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.