8570 Mattson Dr · St. John, IN 46373

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1955 0.52 ac lot Est $217k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits on this spacious half-acre lot in desirable St. John! Owned by the same family since the 1970s, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is ready for its next chapter. Whether you're an investor seeking your next renovation project or a homeowner looking to build equity by making a home your own, the possibilities here are endless. The main level features a living and dining room combination, a functional kitchen with plenty of potential for updating orexpansion, and a convenient breezeway connecting the home to the garage and backyard. Upstairs, the unfinished attic offers potential for additional living space, while the full basement provides even more room for future finishing, sto

Key facts

• 4 car tandem garage
• Breezeway connecting
• Full basement

Tags

• HALF ACRE LOT
• BREEZEWAY CONNECTING
• UNFINISHED ATTIC
• FULL BASEMENT
• 4 CAR TANDEM GARAGE
• MATURE LANDSCAPING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway (asphalt); Garage faces front; 4 garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected (100 amp service); Natural gas connected; Public sewer; Well water
• Home design: One-level home; Built in 1955
• Construction: Brick and stone exterior; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Rain gutters; Neighborhood view

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Bedroom 2; Bedroom 3
• Flooring: Hardwood; Concrete; Vinyl; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Other heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Full unfinished basement with walk-out access, interior entry, and storage space; Bonus room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup (lower level); Gas dryer hookup (lower level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $483 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.6% in St. John — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lake Central School Corporation (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #41 of 301 in IN (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: George Bibich Elementary School (math 67% / reading 62%, grade B, #78 of 994 statewide, top 9%, 572 students, 19% FRL); Michael Grimmer Middle School (math 31% / reading 45%, grade F, #136 of 330 statewide, top 44%, 754 students, 32% FRL); Lake Central High School (math 46% / reading 74%, grade C+, #46 of 369 statewide, top 13%, 3,069 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 260 active listings in the ZIP; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.55%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,200
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11311 Kelly Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,377 (+15%)	23mo	$249,900	$181	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $4,074
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $43,320
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46373

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,065 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$214 /mo · $2,565/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $483

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,453

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $165,000 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-10
   listed $165,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,565 · $214/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,565 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,565
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,982
• − Management: −$1,982
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $3,378
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$811
• After-tax cash flow: $4,988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Central School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1805450
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $75,957
• Composite: 44.82/100
• National rank: #2736
• State rank: #41 of 301 in IN

Livability — St. John

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. John, IN
• City population: 18,509
• Population (ZIP): 18,509

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Iranian 6% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.86%
• Current HPI: 224.1176
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $165,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,565 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.