303 Evans Rd

Caldwell, AR 72326

$85,000C+

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Built 2006 · Manufactured · Under Contract · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $969/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $178/mo
• Annual: $2,135/yr
• Cap rate: 8.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.97%
• DSCR: 1.40
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($969 rent vs $85k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#394 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Forrest City School District (town): math 12% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #230 of 238 in AR (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 93% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary School (725 students, 100% FRL); Forrest City Jr. High (math 9% / reading 15%, grade F, #189 of 201 statewide, top 94%, 275 students, 100% FRL); Forrest City High School (math 6% / reading 10%, grade F, #282 of 292 statewide, top 97%, 580 students, 99% FRL).
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in St. Francis County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Francis County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.