303 Evans Rd · Caldwell, AR 72326

$85,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured · 3 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2006 3.03 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Residential property located on a spacious lot in Colt, AR. Offers potential for renovation, rental, or resale. Quiet rural setting with easy access to Highway 1 and surrounding areas.

Key facts

• Quiet rural setting
• Spacious lot
• 3.03 acre lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• QUIET RURAL SETTING
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAY 1

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($969 rent vs $85k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#394 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Forrest City School District (town): math 12% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #230 of 238 in AR (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 93% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary School (725 students, 100% FRL); Forrest City Jr. High (math 9% / reading 15%, grade F, #189 of 201 statewide, top 94%, 275 students, 100% FRL); Forrest City High School (math 6% / reading 10%, grade F, #282 of 292 statewide, top 97%, 580 students, 99% FRL).
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in St. Francis County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• St. Francis County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.97%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.23% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $32,048
• Equity at exit: $49,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.64×
• Total profit: $86,623
• Equity at exit: $86,168

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72326

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $969 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $237	-5% $207	+0% $178	+5% $149	+10% $119
Rent	-10% $101	-5% $140	+0% $178	+5% $216	+10% $254
Rate	-1.0pp $221	-0.5pp $200	base $178	+0.5pp $156	+1.0pp $133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-01-29
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-01-26
   listed $85,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$930
• − Management: −$930
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $831
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$199
• After-tax cash flow: $1,935/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forrest City School District
• NCES district ID: 0506270
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,153
• Composite: 9.07/100
• National rank: #9871
• State rank: #230 of 238 in AR

Livability — Caldwell

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #394
• US rank: #23012

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Caldwell, AR
• City population: 89
• Population (ZIP): 2,030

Population outlook (St. Francis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,387 people
• By 2030: 23,269 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 21,122 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 19,281 · -20.9%
• By 2075: 15,222 · -37.6%
• By 2100: 11,449 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 28% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Francis

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.4% · R 48.6% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: 16.5pp · 2024: 0.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.7 2020: D+5.1 2016: D+11.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+16.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.23%
• Current HPI: 172.8048
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $85,000 CARMLS