5148 Foster Ave

Groves, TX 77619

$129,900B+

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,313 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,961/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$409
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $459/mo
• Annual: $5,513/yr
• Cap rate: 11.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.35%
• DSCR: 1.77
• 1% rule: 1.51%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $459 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#315 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Port Neches-Groves ISD (suburban): math 42% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #260 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Port Neches El (math 40% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 378 students, 40% FRL); Groves Middle (math 47% / reading 41%, grade D, #512 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 608 students, 55% FRL); Port Neches-Groves H S (math 36% / reading 57%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 1,627 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 27% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 4.0% in Groves — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.