18614 Porthaven Rose Ln

Tomball, TX 77377

$255,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,710 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,048/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,342
• Tax + insurance: −$426
• HOA: −$38
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-189/mo
• Annual: $-2,264/yr
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.16%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $71,652

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $256k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-189 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (10.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (20.0% below list).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $205k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Grand Oaks El (math 44% / reading 51%, grade D, #989 of 4,322 statewide, top 23%, 979 students, 29% FRL); Grand Lakes J H (969 students, 29% FRL); Tomball H S (math 74% / reading 69%, grade B+, #111 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,801 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1145 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 113d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 11532% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.9% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.