Is 18614 Porthaven Rose Ln in Tomball, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 5.4% cap rate and $-189/mo modeled cash flow at a $255,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 18614 Porthaven Rose Ln?

The modeled cap rate is 5.4% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,048/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 41.73

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +11.1/15.0
Cash flow +9.3/30.0
Schools +6.0/10.0
Livability +3.8/5.0
Condition / age +3.8/5.0
1% rule +3.0/10.0
DSCR +2.6/10.0
Rent growth +2.3/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$255,900

18614 Porthaven Rose Ln · Tomball, TX 77377

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,710 sqft · SingleFamily · 47 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 6,006 sqft lot 2-car garage $150/sqft · 8% below area Est $278k · 8% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome home to 18614 Porthaven Rose Ln. in the desirable Rose Meadow Farms community of Tomball. Built in 2020, this beautifully maintained single-story home offers 3 bedrms, 2 baths, and 1,710 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. The attractive brick exterior, manicured landscaping, & inviting covered entry create excellent curb appeal. Inside, you'll find an open-concept layout filled with natural light, wood-look flooring, & neutral finishes. Just off the entry, a versatile flex space is ideal for a home office, playroom, dining room, or second living area.

Key facts

Ensuite bath
White cabinetry
Gas range

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $256k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-189 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (10.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (20.0% below list).
Recommended offer: $205k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.9% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Grand Oaks El (math 44% / reading 51%, grade D, #989 of 4,322 statewide, top 23%, 979 students, 29% FRL); Grand Lakes J H (969 students, 29% FRL); Tomball H S (math 74% / reading 69%, grade B+, #111 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,801 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1145 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 113d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 11532% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,786 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.80% ✗
Cap rate: 5.41%
Cash-on-cash: -3.16%
DSCR: 0.86
GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $278,042
List price: $255,900
Delta: -7.96%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21114 Secret Garden Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,767 (+3%)	0mo	$349,067	$198	90
21227 Trumpet Lily Trl	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,636 (-4%)	2mo	$260,000	$159	86
21159 Secret Garden Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,767 (+3%)	2mo	$373,879	$212	83
20943 Twining Rose Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (+3%)	4mo	$265,000	$151	82
19218 Palfrey Prairie Trl	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,743 (+2%)	1mo	$309,000	$177	74
18615 Scarlet Meadow Ln	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,783 (+4%)	5mo	$280,000	$157	72
18210 Ellerden Forest Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,782 (+4%)	1mo	$325,990	$183	68
19327 Palfrey Prairie Trl	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,741 (+2%)	5mo	$330,000	$190	64
18230 Calabria Harbor Trl	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,782 (+4%)	4mo	$333,515	$187	63
20823 Little Sebastian Trl	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,711 (+0%)	4mo	$350,000	$205	63
18222 Calabria Harbor Trl	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,836 (+7%)	4mo	$344,990	$188	58
19247 Palfrey Prairie Trl	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,465 (-14%)	5mo	$318,000	$217	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -25.0%
Equity multiple: 0.17×
Total profit: $-59,430
Equity at exit: $38,156

10-year hold

IRR: -34.1%
Equity multiple: -0.26×
Total profit: $-90,195
Equity at exit: $22,126

Cash invested: $71,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 39 active · 25 under contract
Months of supply: 10.2 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $315,000 ($183/sqft)
Median days on market: 113 d
This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -11.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77377

Home prices YoY: -24.5%
Rents YoY: -0.7%
Active inventory: 1145
Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,048 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,342
Tax est. 1.5%: −$320 /mo · $3,838/yr
Insurance: −$107
HOA: −$38
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
Net cashflow: $-189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,287

Max offer price $228,601

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-12	-5% $-100	+0% $-189	+5% $-277	+10% $-366
Rent	-10% $-350	-5% $-270	+0% $-189	+5% $-108	+10% $-27
Rate	-1.0pp $-60	-0.5pp $-124	base $-189	+0.5pp $-255	+1.0pp $-322

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $63,975
Closing costs: $7,677
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21027 Twining Rose Ln Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,799	$1.12	113d	1	0.08mi
19110 Brindled Bay Ct Tomball, TX	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,350	$1.15	123d	1	0.90mi
19110 Brindled Bay Ct Tomball, TX	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,750	$1.34	143d	1	0.90mi
19127 Friesian Stallion Ln Tomball, TX	4.0	2.0	1737	$2,600	$1.50	37d	1	0.95mi
22406 Birch Bud Ln Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,199	$1.19	99d	1	1.24mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Community association managed by Sterling Association Services Inc.Annual HOA fee of $450

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertySingle-story living (all primary rooms on first floor)Slab foundationComposition roof
Construction: Built in 2020Brick and vinyl siding construction
Exterior features: Covered patioPatio and deckPrivate backyardFenced backyardSubdivision lot

Interior

Kitchen: Convection ovenDishwasherGas cooktopDisposalMicrowave
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 14 x 19)Two additional bedrooms on first floor (each approx. 10 x 11)Home configured for 3 bedrooms totalBonus room on first floor (approx. 11 x 13)Living room on first floor (approx. 16 x 16)Breakfast nook on first floorUtility room on first floor
Flooring: CarpetLaminateVinyl
Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsPrimary bath features double vanity and sitting area
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas and geothermal)Central electric air conditioning
Interior features: All bedrooms on main levelDouble vanity in primaryFull bath on main levelSitting area in primarySplit bedroom floorplanTub with showerVanityWalk-in closetsCombined living/dining area8 total rooms
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupUtility room on first floor

HOA detail $38/mo · $456/yr

Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-05

days on market $255,900 Active 47 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $255,900 Active 46 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $255,900 Active 44 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $255,900 Active 43 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $255,900 Active 42 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $255,900 Active 41 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $255,900 Active 40 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $255,900 Active 39 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $255,900 Active 38 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $255,900 Active 37 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $255,900 Active 36 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $255,900 Active 35 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $255,900 Active 34 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $255,900 Active 33 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $255,900 Active 32 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $255,900 Active 31 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $255,900 Active 30 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $255,900 Active 29 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $255,900 Active 28 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $255,900 Active 27 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $255,900 Active 26 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $255,900 Active 25 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $255,900 Active 24 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $255,900 Active 23 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $255,900 Active 22 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $255,900 Active 21 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $255,900 Active 20 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $255,900 Active 19 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $255,900 Active 18 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $255,900 Active 17 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $255,900 Active 16 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $255,900 Active 15 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $255,900 Active 14 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $255,900 Active 13 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $255,900 Active 12 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $255,900 Active 11 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $255,900 Active 10 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $255,900 Active 9 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $255,900 Active 8 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $255,900 Active 7 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $255,900 Active 6 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $255,900 Active 5 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $255,900 Active 4 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $255,900 Active 3 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $255,900 Active 2 DOM
2026-09-19

pricedays on marketlisting id $255,900 Active 1 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $259,900 Active 106 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $259,900 Active 105 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $259,900 Active 104 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $259,900 Active 103 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $24,574
− Mortgage interest: −$14,334
− Property taxes: −$3,838
− Insurance: −$1,280
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,966
− Management: −$1,966
− HOA: −$456
− Depreciation: −$7,444
Taxable loss: −$6,710

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,610
After-tax cash flow: $-653/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,550–$25,650 screening

This single-story home in Tomball, TX, is in good condition with a good curb appeal and neutral finishes. It offers a good investment opportunity with minor updates that can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value. ↑
Both Landscaping maintenance — Improves curb appeal and rental appeal. ↑
Both Deep clean interior — Enhances the home's appeal and can be done at a low cost. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Grand Oaks El D TX #989/4,322 Nat'l #14,382/41,679 Middle Grand Lakes J H High Tomball H S B+ TX #111/1,632 Nat'l #2,009/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Tomball ISD
NCES district ID: 4842960
Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $86,552
Composite: 58.32/100
National rank: #1014
State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Tomball

Score: 75/100
State rank: #155
US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
City population: 113,991
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 41,680
Household income: $129,327
Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 5%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -76.14%
Current HPI: 235.031
Rent YoY: ▼ -0.69%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-99.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

2026-10-09 Listed for Rent $2,200 HARMLS
2026-09-19 Listed $255,900 HARMLS
2026-09-05 Price Changed $259,900 HARMLS
2026-08-04 Price Changed $263,500 HARMLS
2026-07-15 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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