16705 Naito Ave

Caldwell, ID 83607

$369,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,410 sqft · Built 2004 · Other · Pending · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,192/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax + insurance: −$616
• HOA: −$9
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$670
• Net cashflow: $-44/mo
• Annual: $-526/yr
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.51%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $103,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $370k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-526/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $364k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $319k (13.7% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($359k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $319k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#88 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Vallivue School District (rural): math 34% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #48 of 92 in ID (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Canyon Elementary School (math 36% / reading 55%, grade D-, #194 of 357 statewide, top 55%, 636 students, 50% FRL); Vallivue Middle School (math 32% / reading 60%, grade D+, #47 of 109 statewide, top 44%, 677 students, 41% FRL); Vallivue Academy (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #40 of 169 statewide, top 26%, 122 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 581 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.0% in Caldwell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.