43300 Little River Airport #99

Little River, CA 95456

$210,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Built 1976 · Manufactured · Active · 210 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,331/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$350
• HOA: −$1,247
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-857/mo
• Annual: $-10,284/yr
• Cap rate: 1.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.49%
• DSCR: 0.22
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $58,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-857 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $86k (59.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $86k (59.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#1,300 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, crime F.
• Mendocino Unified (rural): math 46% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #425 of 1,400 in CA (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 54% of rent.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Mendocino County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mendocino County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 59% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?