43300 Little River Airport #99 · Little River, CA 95456

$210,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured · 210 Days on market

Built 1976 $184/sqft · at area comps Est $207k · at est. $1247/mo HOA · 54% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Cash flow +1.1/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Neat and tidy 2-bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home in the quiet and well planned 55+ community, The Woods. Located in the sunbelt on a lovely natural wooded parcel with spacious decks for enjoying the outdoors. Home is light and bright with lots of windows and has an open living area, nice size bedrooms and laundry room. The carport is enclosed on 3 sides with extra storage and there is an additional shed with a finished interior. Neighborhood benefits include a clubhouse, indoor swimming pool, exercise room and borders State Park property.

Key facts

• Enclosed carport
• Spacious decks
• Extra storage

Tags

• NATURAL WOODED PARCEL
• SPACIOUS DECKS
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• ENCLOSED CARPORT
• EXTRA STORAGE
• FINISHED INTERIOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-857 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $86k (59.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (59.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#1,300 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, crime F.
• Mendocino Unified (rural): math 46% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #425 of 1,400 in CA (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Mendocino County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Mendocino County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 54% of rent.

Recommended offer $85,985 (59.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 59% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 1.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.49%
• DSCR: 0.22
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,788
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: 1.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-39,345
• Equity at exit: $82,873

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-48,355
• Equity at exit: $119,372

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95456

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,331 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$1,247
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-857

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,416

Max offer price $85,985

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-712	-5% $-784	+0% $-857	+5% $-930	+10% $-1,002
Rent	-10% $-1,041	-5% $-949	+0% $-857	+5% $-765	+10% $-673
Rate	-1.0pp $-751	-0.5pp $-804	base $-857	+0.5pp $-911	+1.0pp $-967

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1,247 · $14,964/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $210,000 Active 210 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $210,000 Active 208 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 207 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 206 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 205 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 204 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $210,000 Active 202 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $210,000 Active 201 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 198 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $210,000 Active 197 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 196 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $210,000 Active 193 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 192 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    price $210,000 Active 191 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 191 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 190 DOM
17. 2026-01-14
    price $225,000 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    Neat and tidy 2-bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home in the quiet and well planned 55+ community, The Woods. Located in the sunbelt on a lovely natural wooded parcel with spacious decks for enjoying the outdoors. Home is light and bright with lots of windows and has an open living area, nice size bedrooms and laundry room. The carport is enclosed on 3 sides with extra storage and there is an additional shed with a finished interior. Neighborhood benefits include a clubhouse, indoor swimming pool, exercise room and borders State Park property.

18. 2025-11-21
    listed $250,000 Active 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    Neat and tidy 2-bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home in the quiet and well planned 55+ community, The Woods. Located in the sunbelt on a lovely natural wooded parcel with spacious decks for enjoying the outdoors. Home is light and bright with lots of windows and has an open living area, nice size bedrooms and laundry room. The carport is enclosed on 3 sides with extra storage and there is an additional shed with a finished interior. Neighborhood benefits include a clubhouse, indoor swimming pool, exercise room and borders State Park property.

19. 2021-05-26
    soldstatus $249,000 753-char remark

    Show marketing remark (753 chars)

    Close to Mendocino Village, Van Damme State beach this Charming 1140 square foot, 2-bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home located in the quiet and well-planned 55+ community, The Woods. Tucked in a lovely natural wooded setting this home offers an open living room and dining room concept. Kitchen with artful wood breakfast bar, gas range, dishwasher, microwave and new refrigerator. Spacious bedrooms and baths. Laundry room. Sunny deck. Various upgrades by owners include new roof, dual pane windows, laminate floors, and on demand water heater. Fully remodeled ''She shed'' with sky light. Car port with plenty of storage areas. $249,000. Clubhouse pool, exercise room and enmities for residence use. Easily assessible paved walking trails and more. ..

20. 2019-07-01
    soldstatus $140,000
21. 2019-07-01
    soldstatus $140,000
22. 2019-02-13
    listed $150,000
23. 2013-04-10
    soldstatus $72,000
24. 2009-10-01
    soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,968
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$3,150
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,237
• − Management: −$2,237
• − HOA: −$14,964
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$13,543
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,250
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,034/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mendocino Unified
• NCES district ID: 0624480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,690
• Composite: 45.54/100
• National rank: #5670
• State rank: #425 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Little River

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #1300
• US rank: #26598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment F Housing F Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 965

Population outlook (Mendocino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,643 people
• By 2030: 82,138 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 76,402 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 71,759 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 61,454 · -27.4%
• By 2100: 50,130 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8%
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7% Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mendocino

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.8) · D 61.3% · R 34.5% · Other 4.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 42.8pp · 2024: 26.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.8 2020: D+35.8 2016: D+29.1 2012: D+37.6 2008: D+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.00%
• Current HPI: 133.5075
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+104.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $225,000 CRMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $250,000 CRMLS
• 2021-05-26 Sold (MLS) $249,000 CRMLS
• 2019-07-01 Sold (MLS) $140,000 CRMLS
• 2019-07-01 Sold (MLS) $140,000 BAREIS
• 2019-02-13 Listed $150,000 BAREIS
• 2013-04-10 Sold (MLS) $72,000 CRMLS
• 2009-10-01 Sold (MLS) $110,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+18.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $280 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.