16 1st St

Yorkville, NY 13495

$185,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Built 1914 · SingleFamily · Active · 149 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,306/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$293
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $-232/mo
• Annual: $-2,782/yr
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.37%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (22.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (29.4% below list).
• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#359 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• New York Mills Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #224 of 590 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $185k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.