16 1st St · Yorkville, NY 13495

$185,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 149 Days on market

Built 1914 0.44 ac lot Est $164k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• ARV discount +1.7/15.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

This three-bedroom cottage in Yorkville is located in the NY Mills School district. It features a large yard with space to expand, a first-floor bedroom, and a ramp for easy access. First Floor bath/Laundry. The seller has used the home as a rental and has a great history. Also, would provide a great personal home close to Utica , shopping, food, and so much more. Take the next step toward your future today.

Key facts

• Close to food
• Large yard
• Close to shopping

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM
• FIRST FLOOR BATH LAUNDRY
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO FOOD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story house; Resale property; Asphalt roof
• Construction: See remarks for construction materials; Existing year built
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Enclosed porch; Open porch; Irregular lot; Main thoroughfare frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom; Two second-floor bedrooms; One first-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Forced-air heating
• Interior features: Accessible approach with ramp; Eat-in kitchen; Bedroom on main level; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (22.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#359 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• New York Mills Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #224 of 590 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $185k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $130,573 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.37%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
125 Campbell Ave	0.03mi	2/1.0	1,174 (+12%)	8mo	$183,200	$156	72
94 Campbell Ave	0.18mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,120 (+7%)	5mo	$252,350	$225	71
7 6th St	0.26mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,144 (+9%)	8mo	$220,000	$192	62
19 Whitesboro St	0.32mi	2/1.0	1,183 (+13%)	9mo	$166,500	$141	56
10 Russell Ave	0.42mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,110 (+6%)	10mo	$119,500	$108	56
18 Trinity Ave	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,122 (+7%)	11mo	$103,000	$92	56
6 2nd St	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,163 (+11%)	19mo	$136,100	$117	53
2325 W Graham Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	900 (-14%)	14mo	$213,000	$237	44
1405 Kellogg Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,140 (+9%)	7mo	$172,000	$151	44
2133 Mcbride Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+14%)	8mo	$154,500	$129	39
303 Washington Dr	0.72mi	2/1.0	1,196 (+14%)	7mo	$220,000	$184	38
17 Wadas Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (-11%)	9mo	$200,000	$214	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.9% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,038
• Equity at exit: $71,938

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $23,683
• Equity at exit: $102,806

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13495

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,306 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,593/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $-232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,599

Max offer price $144,052

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 1st St Yorkville, NY	3.0	1.0	888	$2,100	$2.36	44d	1	0.12mi
1503 Fox Pl Utica, NY	3.0	1.0	1119	$2,000	$1.79	44d	1	1.15mi
1224 Whitesboro St Unit 3 Utica, NY	1.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	44d	1	1.16mi
1224 Whitesboro St Unit 1 Utica, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,125	$1.02	44d	1	1.16mi
1208 City St #1 Utica, NY	1.0	1.0	1144	$1,100	$0.96	44d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $185,000 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 130 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 129 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $185,000
17. 2026-01-21
    listed $194,000 Active
18. 2023-07-20
    historical
19. 2023-05-12
    listed $174,900 Active
20. 2021-08-18
    historical
21. 2021-08-06
    price $149,900
22. 2021-07-21
    listed $157,500 Active
23. 2020-02-28
    soldstatus $77,200
24. 2019-09-30
    historical
25. 2019-03-21
    listed $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,593 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,860 · $238/mo
• Expected delta: +$267/yr (+$22/mo · 10.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,593
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,254
• − Management: −$1,254
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$6,101
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,464
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New York Mills Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3620610
• Math proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $40,329
• Composite: 52.21/100
• National rank: #1605
• State rank: #224 of 590 in NY

Livability — Yorkville

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #359
• US rank: #6063

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Yorkville, NY
• City population: 1,889
• Population (ZIP): 1,889

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 28% Lithuanian 5% American 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Current HPI: 286.6347
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+105.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $185,000 CNYIS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $194,000 CNYIS
• 2023-07-20 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2023-05-12 Listed $174,900 CNYIS
• 2021-08-18 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2021-08-06 Price Changed $149,900 CNYIS
• 2021-07-21 Listed $157,500 CNYIS
• 2020-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $77,200 Public Records
• 2019-09-30 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2019-03-21 Listed $89,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,593 · -17.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.