8175 Cobblestone Dr

Fort Pierce, FL 34945

$289,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,463 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,571/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax + insurance: −$908
• HOA: −$193
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $-586/mo
• Annual: $-7,029/yr
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.36%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $80,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $289k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-586 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (29.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (11.0% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $204k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#226 in FL, #3,360 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, employment F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.0% in Fort Pierce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.