459 Ballyshannon Dr

Four Corners, FL 33897

$429,900C-

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,549 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Pending · 68 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,774/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,254
• Tax + insurance: −$670
• HOA: −$174
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$793
• Net cashflow: $-117/mo
• Annual: $-1,409/yr
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.17%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $120,372

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $409k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $377k (12.2% below list).
• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($404k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $377k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $353 of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-3k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#453 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Loughman Oaks Elementary School (math 36% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,670 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 1,052 students, 37% FRL); Lake Alfred Polytech Academy (math 41% / reading 43%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 645 students, 59% FRL); Davenport High School (2,333 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 60% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 648 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $346k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Four Corners — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,774/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 926% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.