14059 Mirror Ct

Winding Cypress, FL 34114

$645,000C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,302 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,871/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,382
• Tax + insurance: −$759
• HOA: −$371
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,443
• Net cashflow: $915/mo
• Annual: $10,986/yr
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.52%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $180,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $645k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $915 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $645k).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($626k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $626k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 900 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 16874% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $6,871/mo this rent would consume 92% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 550% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.