14059 Mirror Ct · Winding Cypress, FL 34114

$645,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,302 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2006 0.33 ac lot $371/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged, AI generated or rendered. One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged, AI generated or rendered. Also available for rental. Welcome to Your Southwest Florida Paradise in Reflection Lakes Discover this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath lakefront pool home in the highly sought-after Reflection Lakes community in Naples, Florida. Designed for comfort, style, and everyday enjoyment, this home offers the ideal blend of indoor elegance and outdoor living. From the moment you step inside, you're greeted by stunning lake views that create a peaceful, private backdrop. High tray ceilings and arched doorways add architectural character and a s

Key facts

• Gated community
• Lakefront pool home
• 0.33 acre lot

Tags

• LAKEFRONT POOL HOME
• PRIVATE SCREENED LANAI
• SPARKLING POOL AND SPA
• GATED COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total units in development: many (complex size listed); Possession at closing
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Monthly HOA fee; HOA maintenance covers legal/accounting, manager, recreation facilities, reserves, security, street lights, and street maintenance; Professional management; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, exercise room, billiards, library, hobby room, play area, BBQ/picnic area, community room, internet access, sidewalks, streetlights, and underground utilities; Gated community; Total annual recurring HOA fees listed; One-time fees listed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Paved driveway
• Security: Gated community; Smoke detectors; Community security included in HOA maintenance
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available; Central irrigation
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story / ranch; Built in 2006; Rear exposure faces northwest; Residential property in Reflection Lakes of Naples
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Tile roof; Foundation information not specified
• Exterior features: Automatic sprinklers (central); Screened private pool; Pool is below-ground concrete, heated (electric) with saltwater system; Single-hung and sliding windows; Manual storm shutters; Stucco exterior finish

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen / family dining area; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; At least one bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bathroom has separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable prewire; Foyer; High-speed internet available; Laundry tub; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Volume ceiling; Walk-in closet; Split bedroom floor plan; Den / study; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup; Laundry tub; Auto garage door opener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $645k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $915 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $645k).
• Recommended offer: $626k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 900 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,871/mo this rent would consume 92% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 550% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($626k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 16874% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $625,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.52%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 3.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-2,535
• Equity at exit: $140,941

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $117,978
• Equity at exit: $135,765

Cash invested: $180,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34114

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 900
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,871 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,382
• Tax from tax record: −$424 /mo · $5,089/yr
• Insurance: −$269
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$371
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,443
• Net cashflow: $915

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,712

Max offer price $645,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $161,250
• Closing costs: $19,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14265 Manchester Dr Naples, FL	4.0	2.0	2362	$7,000	$2.96	23d	1	0.13mi
14678 Fern Lake Ct Unit 1049694P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2142	$6,065	$2.83	14d	1	0.21mi
14796 Canton Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$7,000	$4.17	23d	1	0.22mi
9267 Museo Cir Unit 204 Naples, FL	3.0	3.5	2100	$5,200	$2.48	23d	1	0.25mi
9259 Museo Cir #102 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2100	$4,150	$1.98	23d	1	0.28mi
9255 Museo #103 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2100	$9,000	$4.29	23d	1	0.35mi
9239 Tesoro Ln Unit 3-203 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2300	$8,000	$3.48	23d	1	0.42mi
9243 Tesoro Ln Unit 2 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2100	$6,500	$3.10	14d	1	0.45mi
9242 Tesoro Ln Unit 1-102 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2237	$3,000	$1.34	23d	1	0.49mi
14837 Windward Ln Naples, FL	4.0	2.0	2046	$4,995	$2.44	23d	1	0.61mi
9209 Museo Cir Unit 102 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2502	$7,200	$2.88	14d	1	0.63mi
9224 Campanile Cir Unit 203 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2512	$6,495	$2.59	14d	1	0.63mi
14849 Windward Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2344	$11,000	$4.69	23d	1	0.64mi
9205 Museo Cir Unit 201 Naples, FL	4.0	3.0	3000	$10,000	$3.33	14d	1	0.66mi
1937 Yellowfin Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2214	$3,830	$1.73	21d	1	0.66mi
2244 Yellowfin Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$3,300	$1.99	14d	1	0.67mi
1973 Yellowfin Cir Naples, FL	4.0	3.0	2894	$9,800	$3.39	23d	1	0.73mi
7763 Winding Cypress Dr Naples, FL	4.0	3.0	3077	$15,000	$4.87	23d	1	0.80mi
3031 Marengo Ct Unit 203 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2200	$3,500	$1.59	14d	1	0.81mi
14103 Nautica Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1850	$3,650	$1.97	23d	1	0.82mi
14162 Nautica Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1684	$3,800	$2.26	23d	1	0.84mi
2850 Aviamar Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$12,000	$5.34	23d	1	0.85mi
2147 Yellowfin Cir Naples, FL	4.0	3.0	2615	$11,000	$4.21	23d	1	0.85mi
9630 Campanile Cir Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2283	$15,000	$6.57	23d	1	0.85mi
2057 Yellowfin Cir Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2080	$7,800	$3.75	23d	1	0.85mi
14670 Catamaran Pl Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1816	$7,000	$3.85	23d	1	0.86mi
14662 Catamaran Pl Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2034	$7,000	$3.44	23d	1	0.88mi
3149 Aviamar Cir #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1890	$7,500	$3.97	14d	1	0.90mi
2122 Yellowfin Cir Naples, FL	4.0	3.0	2200	$3,200	$1.45	14d	1	0.91mi
9571 Mussorie Ct Naples, FL	3.0	3.5	2117	$12,500	$5.90	23d	1	0.91mi
14190 Galley Ct Naples, FL	4.0	3.0	3015	$5,500	$1.82	21d	1	0.97mi
2710 Callista Ct #104 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2502	$9,000	$3.60	23d	1	0.99mi
14546 Tropical Dr Naples, FL	4.0	2.0	2046	$5,500	$2.69	23d	1	1.00mi
14653 Tropical Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2550	$7,500	$2.94	23d	1	1.00mi
2713 Callista Ct #103 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2237	$6,999	$3.13	23d	1	1.01mi
9515 Campanile Cir Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2318	$20,000	$8.63	23d	1	1.02mi
3290 Dorado Ln #102 Naples, FL	3.0	3.5	2600	$5,530	$2.13	14d	1	1.02mi
3290 Dorado Ln Unit 1-102 Naples, FL	3.0	3.5	2600	$10,000	$3.85	23d	1	1.03mi
14226 Charthouse Cir Naples, FL	4.0	3.5	3255	$14,000	$4.30	23d	1	1.04mi
14586 Tropical Dr Naples, FL	4.0	3.5	2438	$9,500	$3.90	23d	1	1.05mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $371 · $4,452/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $645,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $645,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $645,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $645,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $645,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $645,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $645,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $645,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $645,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $645,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $645,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $645,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    price $645,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $675,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $675,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    listed $3,800
17. 2026-04-29
    listed $675,000 Active
18. 2026-04-24
    historical $3,695
19. 2026-04-02
    listed $3,695
20. 2025-08-22
    historical $3,695
21. 2025-08-12
    listed $3,695
22. 2024-06-04
    historical
23. 2024-01-26
    listed $775,000 Active
24. 2023-07-21
    status Active
25. 2023-05-25
    price $815,000
26. 2023-05-17
    listed $835,000 Active
27. 2022-04-22
    soldstatus $770,000
28. 2022-04-12
    soldstatus $770,000 Closed
29. 2022-04-12
    soldstatus $770,000 Sold
30. 2022-03-04
    status Pending With Contingencies
31. 2022-03-04
    historical Pending with Contingency
32. 2022-03-03
    listed $719,900 Active
33. 2022-03-03
    listed $719,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,089 · $424/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,354 · $446/mo
• Expected delta: +$264/yr (+$22/mo · 5.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $82,454
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,130
• − Property taxes: −$5,089
• − Insurance: −$4,022
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,596
• − Management: −$6,596
• − HOA: −$4,452
• − Depreciation: −$18,764
• Taxable income: $804
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$193
• After-tax cash flow: $10,793/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winding Cypress

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,559
• Household income: $89,334
• Rent vs Own: 15.3% rent · 84.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 550.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 266.5545
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-99.5% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed for Rent $3,800 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $675,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-24 Rental Removed $3,695 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-02 Listed for Rent $3,695 APPFOLIO
• 2025-08-22 Rental Removed $3,695 APPFOLIO
• 2025-08-12 Listed for Rent $3,695 APPFOLIO
• 2024-06-04 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2024-01-26 Listed $775,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2023-07-21 Relisted — BEARMLS
• 2023-05-25 Price Changed $815,000 BEARMLS
• 2023-05-17 Listed $835,000 BEARMLS
• 2022-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $770,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-12 Sold (MLS) $770,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2022-04-12 Sold (MLS) $770,000 MIML
• 2022-03-04 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2022-03-04 Contingent — MIML
• 2022-03-03 Listed $719,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2022-03-03 Listed $719,900 MIML

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,089 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.