837 Francis Scott Key Hwy

Union Bridge, MD 21757

$219,900C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Pending · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,795/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$299
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-34/mo
• Annual: $-406/yr
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.66%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $61,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-406/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (18.4% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $179k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#400 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Carroll County Public Schools (suburban): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #2 of 24 in MD (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Taneytown Elementary (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #297 of 860 statewide, top 38%, 471 students, 64% FRL); Northwest Middle (math 12% / reading 38%, grade F, #104 of 225 statewide, top 47%, 637 students, 44% FRL); Francis Scott Key High (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C, #80 of 222 statewide, top 37%, 944 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 16% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 156 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carroll County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $158k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.