837 Francis Scott Key Hwy · Union Bridge, MD 21757

$219,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1954 0.38 ac lot $112/sqft · 44% below area Est $392k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the potential of this solid rancher in the heart of Keymar! This home is a canvas ready for your personal touch. The main level features a functional layout with classic charm, while the partially finished basement offers incredible versatility—including the footprint and potential to easily add two additional bedrooms. Situated on a lot with scenic views and a convenient commuter location, this is the perfect opportunity to 'make it your own. ' Sold as-is. Schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• 0.38 acre lot
• Built 1954
• Listed 60 days

Tags

• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• CONVENIENT COMMUTER LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-406/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#400 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Carroll County Public Schools (suburban): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #2 of 24 in MD (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Taneytown Elementary (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #297 of 860 statewide, top 38%, 471 students, 64% FRL); Northwest Middle (math 12% / reading 38%, grade F, #104 of 225 statewide, top 47%, 637 students, 44% FRL); Francis Scott Key High (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C, #80 of 222 statewide, top 37%, 944 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 16% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 156 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $158k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,483 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.66%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $391,766
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: -43.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $28,774
• Equity at exit: $103,616

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $100,036
• Equity at exit: $163,472

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21757

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,795 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,484/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,838

Max offer price $213,918

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $91	-5% $28	+0% $-34	+5% $-96	+10% $-158
Rent	-10% $-176	-5% $-105	+0% $-34	+5% $37	+10% $108
Rate	-1.0pp $77	-0.5pp $22	base $-34	+0.5pp $-91	+1.0pp $-149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $219,900 Pending 60 DOM
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $219,900 Active 502-char remark

   Show marketing remark (502 chars)

   Discover the potential of this solid rancher in the heart of Keymar! This home is a canvas ready for your personal touch. The main level features a functional layout with classic charm, while the partially finished basement offers incredible versatility—including the footprint and potential to easily add two additional bedrooms. Situated on a lot with scenic views and a convenient commuter location, this is the perfect opportunity to 'make it your own. ' Sold as-is. Schedule your tour today!

3. 1992-06-22
   soldstatus $158,000
4. 1985-03-12
   soldstatus $45,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,484 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,484 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$2,484
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,723
• − Management: −$1,723
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$4,206
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,009
• After-tax cash flow: $603/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carroll County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400210
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $84,594
• Composite: 37.33/100
• National rank: #4441
• State rank: #2 of 24 in MD

Livability — Union Bridge

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #400
• US rank: #22031

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,810

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,677 people
• By 2030: 169,605 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 166,205 · -2.0%
• By 2050: 158,312 · -6.7%
• By 2075: 143,013 · -15.7%
• By 2100: 122,431 · -27.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.2% · R 61.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: -31.2pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+23.7 2016: R+36.9 2012: R+34.0 2008: R+31.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Current HPI: 303.3856
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+383.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $219,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1992-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $158,000 Public Records
• 1985-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $45,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,484 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.