654A Dune Rd

West Hampton Dunes, NY 11978

$3,950,000C-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,174 sqft · Built 1956 · MultiFamily · Active · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $34,717/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$20,714
• Tax + insurance: −$7,010
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$7,291
• Net cashflow: $-298/mo
• Annual: $-3,572/yr
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $1,106,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $3.95M. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-298 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $3.91M (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $3.47M (12.1% below list).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($3.59M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $3.47M (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $422k of equity ($27k loan paydown + $395k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,117 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D, amenities F, commute F.
• Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #389 of 755 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$679k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $34,717/mo this rent would consume 333% of the median local household income ($125k/yr) (locally 43% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.