654A Dune Rd · West Hampton Dunes, NY 11978

$3,950,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,174 sqft · MultiFamily · 108 Days on market

Built 1956 Good condition 0.56 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Discover a rare bayfront offering in Westhampton Dunes, where timeless Hamptons cottage character meets exceptional potential. This multifamily property presents a unique opportunity to enjoy its inviting, relaxed elegance as is, or thoughtfully reimagine it into a truly one-of-a-kind waterfront retreat. Set along approximately 175 feet of bulkheading, the property enjoys sweeping open-bay views. The main cottage features three bedrooms and two bathrooms, an eat-in kitchen, and a generous great room oriented to capture the water views beyond. The home is equipped with air conditioning and heat, ensuring comfort all season. A separate guest cottage provides excellent flexibility, offering two bedrooms, one bathroom, a fully equipped kitchen, and split systems providing both air conditioning and heat. Ideal for hosting guests, extended family, or rental income, the layout allows for privacy while maintaining a cohesive sense of place. Outdoor living is equally compelling, with a private deck overlooking the bay-perfect for quiet mornings, sunset gatherings, or simply taking in the natural beauty of the setting-as well as an outdoor shower, ideal after a day at the beach. With ocean beach access across the street and less than five miles from the boutiques and dining along Westhampton Beach Main Street, this property offers a rare balance of tranquility, convenience, and classic Hamptons appeal.

Key facts

• Private deck
• Guest cottage
• Bayfront offering

Tags

• BAYFRONT OFFERING
• BULKHEADING
• OPEN-BAY VIEWS
• GUEST COTTAGE
• PRIVATE DECK
• OUTDOOR SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $3.95M. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-298 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $3.91M (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $3.47M (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $3.47M (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,117 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D, amenities F, commute F.
• Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #389 of 755 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $34,717/mo this rent would consume 333% of the median local household income ($125k/yr) (locally 43% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $422k of equity ($27k loan paydown + $395k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$679k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($3.59M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $3,471,700 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $2,133,102
• Equity at exit: $3,558,473

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.69×
• Total profit: $6,298,104
• Equity at exit: $7,673,981

Cash invested: $1,106,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11978

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 17.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $34,717 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$20,714
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$4,938 /mo · $59,250/yr
• Insurance: −$1,646
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$7,291
• Net cashflow: $-298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $35,094

Max offer price $3,906,926

Occupancy floor 96%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	3	2	$19,344
1× unit	2	1	$15,373
Total (2 units)			$34,717

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $987,500
• Closing costs: $118,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
552 Dune Rd Westhampton Beach, NY	5.0	3.5	2296	$55,000	$23.95	43d	1	0.64mi
561 Dune Rd Westhampton Beach, NY	4.0	3.0	2500	$60,000	$24.00	22d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,950,000 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,950,000 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,950,000 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,950,000 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,950,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,950,000 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,950,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $3,950,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $3,950,000 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $3,950,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $3,950,000 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,950,000 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,950,000 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,950,000 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-03-02
    listed $3,950,000 Active 1415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1415 chars)

    Discover a rare bayfront offering in Westhampton Dunes, where timeless Hamptons cottage character meets exceptional potential. This multifamily property presents a unique opportunity to enjoy its inviting, relaxed elegance as is, or thoughtfully reimagine it into a truly one-of-a-kind waterfront retreat. Set along approximately 175 feet of bulkheading, the property enjoys sweeping open-bay views. The main cottage features three bedrooms and two bathrooms, an eat-in kitchen, and a generous great room oriented to capture the water views beyond. The home is equipped with air conditioning and heat, ensuring comfort all season. A separate guest cottage provides excellent flexibility, offering two bedrooms, one bathroom, a fully equipped kitchen, and split systems providing both air conditioning and heat. Ideal for hosting guests, extended family, or rental income, the layout allows for privacy while maintaining a cohesive sense of place. Outdoor living is equally compelling, with a private deck overlooking the bay-perfect for quiet mornings, sunset gatherings, or simply taking in the natural beauty of the setting-as well as an outdoor shower, ideal after a day at the beach. With ocean beach access across the street and less than five miles from the boutiques and dining along Westhampton Beach Main Street, this property offers a rare balance of tranquility, convenience, and classic Hamptons appeal.

16. 2026-01-01
    historical $40,000
17. 2025-07-31
    listed $40,000
18. 2025-07-27
    historical $40,000
19. 2025-04-18
    listed $40,000
20. 2024-09-01
    historical $29,000
21. 2024-05-29
    price $29,000
22. 2024-02-13
    listed $35,000
23. 2023-07-01
    historical
24. 2020-08-24
    historical
25. 2020-06-23
    listed $2,199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $416,604
• − Mortgage interest: −$221,261
• − Property taxes: −$59,250
• − Insurance: −$24,868
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$33,328
• − Management: −$33,328
• − Depreciation: −$114,909
• Taxable loss: −$70,342
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$16,882
• After-tax cash flow: $13,310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This waterfront property in Westhampton Dunes offers a good condition with a good rehab level, ready for minor cosmetic updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can improve the kitchen's appearance and functionality.
• Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can increase convenience and energy efficiency, appealing to buyers and renters alike.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can improve the kitchen's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can increase convenience and energy efficiency, appealing to buyers and renters alike. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3624420
• Math proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $79,972
• Composite: 47.7/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #389 of 755 in NY

Livability — West Hampton Dunes

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1117
• US rank: #22970

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Hampton Dunes, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 4,705
• Household income: $125,179
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 43.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.02%
• Current HPI: 460.3964
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+79.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Listed $3,950,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Rental Removed $40,000 ONEKEY
• 2025-07-31 Listed for Rent $40,000 ONEKEY
• 2025-07-27 Rental Removed $40,000 ONEKEY
• 2025-04-18 Listed for Rent $40,000 ONEKEY
• 2024-09-01 Rental Removed $29,000 ONEKEY
• 2024-05-29 Price Changed $29,000 ONEKEY
• 2024-02-13 Listed for Rent $35,000 ONEKEY
• 2023-07-01 Rental Removed — ONEKEY
• 2020-08-24 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-23 Listed $2,199,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid