475 N Perkins Ferry Rd N #23

Moss Bluff, LA 70611

$52,900B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 950 sqft · Built 1975 · Townhouse · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,069/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$277
• Tax + insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$62
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $417/mo
• Annual: $5,002/yr
• Cap rate: 15.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.77%
• DSCR: 2.50
• 1% rule: 2.02%
• Cash to close: $14,812

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $53k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $417 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $53k).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $50k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $366 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#39 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Calcasieu Parish (other): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #29 of 98 in LA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 322 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,298 units permitted in Calcasieu Parish in 2024 (526 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Calcasieu County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 3.5% in Moss Bluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 13% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: ceiling — spackling visible
• Minor: kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor: bathroom fixtures — standard condition