TBD No Address

Picture Rocks, AZ 85653

$150,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,465 sqft · Built 1935 · SingleFamily · Active · 720 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,225/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$372
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $599/mo
• Annual: $7,185/yr
• Cap rate: 12.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.60%
• DSCR: 1.92
• 1% rule: 1.48%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $599 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 720 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#261 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Picture Rocks Elementary (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #752 of 1,109 statewide, top 70%, 493 students, 67% FRL); Marana Middle School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #97 of 218 statewide, top 45%, 907 students, 44% FRL); Marana High School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #210 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 2,379 students, 36% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo; built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 416 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 3→8/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 5.6% in Picture Rocks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 720 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — No visible roof, likely aged
• Major: exterior — No visible exterior, likely weathered
• Major: interior walls/paint — No visible interior walls/paint, likely old
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — No visible HVAC/mechanicals, likely outdated
• Major: landscaping/curb appeal — No visible landscaping/curb appeal, likely overgrown