TBD No Address · Picture Rocks, AZ 85653

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,465 sqft · SingleFamily · 720 Days on market

Built 1935 Poor condition 9,148 sqft lot $61/sqft · 75% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Listing is ONLY being Sold along with MLS 22416338 & Parcel #215-19-009B This was the Homestead that started the Glover Ranch, needs some TLC but has been occupied in the past. This is a Beautiful part of the Glover Ranch and would make an amazing place to live. This is being sold along with the Glover Ranch.

Key facts

• 9,148 sq ft lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1935

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $599 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 5.7% in Picture Rocks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#261 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, schools F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 417 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 720 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo; built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 3→8/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 720 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.60%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $592,455
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -74.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $14,906
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $66,530
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85653

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 417
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,225 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $599

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,467

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $702	-5% $651	+0% $599	+5% $547	+10% $495
Rent	-10% $423	-5% $511	+0% $599	+5% $687	+10% $775
Rate	-1.0pp $674	-0.5pp $637	base $599	+0.5pp $560	+1.0pp $520

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 720 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 717 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 716 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 715 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 714 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 712 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 711 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 709 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 708 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 707 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 706 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 703 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 702 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 701 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 700 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 699 DOM
17. 2024-07-01
    listed $150,000 Active 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    This Listing is ONLY being Sold along with MLS 22416338 & Parcel #215-19-009B This was the Homestead that started the Glover Ranch, needs some TLC but has been occupied in the past. This is a Beautiful part of the Glover Ranch and would make an amazing place to live. This is being sold along with the Glover Ranch.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AO · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 3 d/yr ≥109°F today · 8 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,699
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$2,218
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,136
• − Management: −$2,136
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $5,194
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,246
• After-tax cash flow: $5,939/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property, part of the Glover Ranch, requires extensive repairs and updates to bring it up to a livable condition. Significant investment is needed in the roof, exterior, interior walls, HVAC, and landscaping to make it move-in ready.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — No visible roof, likely aged
• Major exterior — No visible exterior, likely weathered
• Major interior walls/paint — No visible interior walls/paint, likely old
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible HVAC/mechanicals, likely outdated
• Major landscaping/curb appeal — No visible landscaping/curb appeal, likely overgrown

Value-add opportunities

• Resale exterior painting — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal
• Rental HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce utility costs
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained yard and curb appeal can attract both buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · No visible roof, likely aged	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior · No visible exterior, likely weathered	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No visible interior walls/paint, likely old	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible HVAC/mechanicals, likely outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping/curb appeal · No visible landscaping/curb appeal, likely overgrown	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale exterior painting — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal ↑
• Rental HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce utility costs ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained yard and curb appeal can attract both buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Picture Rocks

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #23370

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Picture Rocks, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,574
• Household income: $86,154
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.29%
• Current HPI: 249.3403
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.43%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-07-01 Listed $150,000 MLSSAZ