6530 Ithaca Fls

San Antonio, TX 78239

$194,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,630 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,708/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax + insurance: −$514
• HOA: −$11
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $-197/mo
• Annual: $-2,368/yr
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.34%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $54,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-197 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (12.3% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• North East ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #276 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Royal Ridge El (math 26% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 468 students, 74% FRL); White Middle (math 28% / reading 40%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 944 students, 68% FRL); Roosevelt H S (math 20% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,096 of 1,632 statewide, top 68%, 2,599 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 41% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the North East ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 211 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?