6530 Ithaca Fls · San Antonio, TX 78239

$194,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,630 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 2006 4,965 sqft lot $120/sqft · 20% below area Est $244k · 20% under $11/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready three-bedroom, two-bathroom home featuring a spacious and inviting open floor plan. The living room serves as the heart of the home, centered around a cozy fireplace that adds warmth and character to the space. The primary suite is a true retreat, offering an attached ensuite bathroom complete with a relaxing garden tub, a separate standing shower, and dual sinks for added convenience. You are just minutes away from local shopping, a variety of dining options, and area parks. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 4,965 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2006

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-197 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• North East ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #276 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Royal Ridge El (math 26% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 468 students, 74% FRL); White Middle (math 28% / reading 40%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 944 students, 68% FRL); Roosevelt H S (math 20% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,096 of 1,632 statewide, top 68%, 2,599 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 41% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the North East ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 211 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,036 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.34%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,046
• List price: $194,900
• Delta: -20.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6422 Ithaca Fls	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,630 (0%)	4mo	$214,900	$132	92
6415 Ithaca	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,630 (0%)	2mo	$221,000	$136	91
6430 Ithaca Fls	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,520 (-7%)	1mo	$170,000	$112	84
10274 King Robert	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,522 (-7%)	3mo	$345,125	$227	79
6611 Wood Bench	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,586 (-3%)	2mo	$242,000	$153	76
6455 Wind Cyn	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,642 (+1%)	2mo	$266,000	$162	65
6035 Royal Breeze	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,846 (+13%)	2mo	$290,000	$157	59
5835 Royal Clb	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,561 (-4%)	1mo	$227,000	$145	57
9834 Dull Knife	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-8%)	3mo	$199,000	$133	50
7105 Walkers Loop	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,835 (+13%)	4mo	$380,000	$207	48
7122 Walkers Loop	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,837 (+13%)	2mo	$390,990	$213	46
6747 Sunlit Pass	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,386 (-15%)	3mo	$209,000	$151	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-49,010
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-77,607
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78239

• Home prices YoY: -5.9%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,708 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax from tax record: −$433 /mo · $5,193/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$11
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $-197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,958

Max offer price $160,036

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-87	-5% $-142	+0% $-197	+5% $-253	+10% $-308
Rent	-10% $-332	-5% $-265	+0% $-197	+5% $-130	+10% $-62
Rate	-1.0pp $-99	-0.5pp $-148	base $-197	+0.5pp $-248	+1.0pp $-299

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6527 Ithaca Fls San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1528	$1,850	$1.21	0d	1	0.03mi
6527 Ithaca Fls San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1528	$1,850	$1.21	6d	1	0.03mi
6427 Ithaca Fls San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,595	$1.21	25d	1	0.08mi
6427 Ithaca Fls San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,595	$1.21	9d	1	0.08mi
6503 Ithaca Frst San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1630	$1,695	$1.04	45d	1	0.09mi
6406 Ithaca Fls San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1508	$1,500	$0.99	12d	1	0.11mi
10527 Sonora Sunset San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1582	$1,599	$1.01	9d	1	0.16mi
10527 Sonora Sunset San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1582	$1,599	$1.01	22d	1	0.16mi
10958 Crown Park San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1750	$1,500	$0.86	12d	1	0.40mi
6607 Shadden Oaks San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,800	$1.18	25d	1	0.49mi
6722 Badger Pass Dr San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	2180	$1,795	$0.82	6d	1	0.52mi
7350 Walkers Loop Unit 1 Live Oak, TX	4.0	3.0	1938	$2,400	$1.24	19d	1	0.54mi
9711 Arcade Rdg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1210	$1,299	$1.07	45d	1	0.59mi
9426 Apple Ridge Ln Unit 603 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,450	$1.18	9d	1	0.60mi
5868 Royal Rdg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2084	$1,750	$0.84	0d	1	0.68mi
9839 Logans Ridge Dr Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	1988	$1,695	$0.85	6d	1	0.70mi
9410 Fulwood Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1210	$1,425	$1.18	23d	1	0.70mi
6635 Barton Rock Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1386	$1,600	$1.15	0d	1	0.73mi
9806 Pebble Ridge Dr Converse, TX	3.0	3.0	2131	$1,850	$0.87	45d	1	0.75mi
5838 Royal Bnd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1908	$1,850	$0.97	12d	1	0.77mi
9318 Bending Crst San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1879	$1,700	$0.90	12d	1	0.81mi
10306 Pinehurst Run San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1271	$1,750	$1.38	0d	1	0.85mi
7733 Forest Strm Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	2041	$1,975	$0.97	16d	1	0.85mi
6811 Evercrest Ln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1582	$2,100	$1.33	25d	1	0.92mi
10503 Ludlow Ct San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$1,100	$0.65	6d	1	0.94mi
7110 Ridge Port Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,600	$1.01	14d	1	0.97mi
12010 Sailing Away St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1906	$1,875	$0.98	4d	1	0.98mi
8818 Bridington San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1814	$2,100	$1.16	16d	1	0.99mi
9526 Millers Rdg San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	2173	$1,699	$0.78	25d	1	1.02mi
7106 Comanche Rdg Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,750	$1.10	25d	1	1.02mi
9535 Apple Ridge Ln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,638	$1.02	5d	1	1.04mi
9527 Apple Ridge Ln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,575	$0.98	0d	1	1.06mi
6918 Crestway Rd Unit 2 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,395	$1.14	0d	1	1.08mi
6918 Crestway Rd Unit 4 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1261	$1,420	$1.13	0d	1	1.08mi
6926 Crestway Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1325	$1,345	$1.02	45d	1	1.11mi
9426 Apple Ridge Ln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,350	$1.10	45d	1	1.13mi
9426 Apple Ridge Ln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,495	$1.22	12d	1	1.13mi
6934 Crestway Rd #2 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,395	$1.14	0d	1	1.13mi
7239 Converse Ridge Ln Unit 603 Windcrest, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,450	$1.18	14d	1	1.13mi
7239 Converse Ridge Ln Unit 703 Windcrest, TX	3.0	2.5	1225	$1,500	$1.22	25d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $11 · $132/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $194,900 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,900 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,900 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $194,900 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $194,900 Price Change 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $194,900 Price Change 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $194,900 Price Change 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $194,900 Price Change 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $194,900 Price Change 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,900 Price Change 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,900 Price Change 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $199,900 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    Move-in ready three-bedroom, two-bathroom home featuring a spacious and inviting open floor plan. The living room serves as the heart of the home, centered around a cozy fireplace that adds warmth and character to the space. The primary suite is a true retreat, offering an attached ensuite bathroom complete with a relaxing garden tub, a separate standing shower, and dual sinks for added convenience. You are just minutes away from local shopping, a variety of dining options, and area parks. Schedule your showing today!

16. 2026-04-09
    listed $209,900 New 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    Move-in ready three-bedroom, two-bathroom home featuring a spacious and inviting open floor plan. The living room serves as the heart of the home, centered around a cozy fireplace that adds warmth and character to the space. The primary suite is a true retreat, offering an attached ensuite bathroom complete with a relaxing garden tub, a separate standing shower, and dual sinks for added convenience. You are just minutes away from local shopping, a variety of dining options, and area parks. Schedule your showing today!

17. 2026-04-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,193 · $433/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,193 · $433/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$5,193
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,640
• − Management: −$1,640
• − HOA: −$132
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable loss: −$5,666
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,360
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,009/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North East ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832940
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $57,715
• Composite: 38.1/100
• National rank: #4276
• State rank: #276 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,609
• Household income: $70,098
• Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 488.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 30% Two or more races 20% Black 16% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% Vietnamese 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.13%
• Current HPI: 242.1272
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $199,900 LERA
• 2026-04-09 Listed $209,900 LERA
• 2026-04-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,193 · -4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.