449 Holley Rd

Farmington, ME 04938

$450,000D

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,323 sqft · Built 1820 · SingleFamily · Active · 104 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,044/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$744
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-1,489/mo
• Annual: $-17,867/yr
• Cap rate: 2.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.18%
• DSCR: 0.37
• 1% rule: 0.45%
• Cash to close: $126,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (58.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (54.6% below list).
• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($410k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $187k (58.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#18 in ME, #1,653 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D-.
• RSU 09 (rural): math 78% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #88 of 112 in ME (top 79%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Mt Blue Middle School (math 78% / reading 79%, grade A+, #69 of 85 statewide, top 82%, 488 students, 50% FRL); Mt Blue High School (math 87% / reading 95%, grade A+, #42 of 108 statewide, top 38%, 733 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1820 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 164 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Franklin County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 4.8% in Farmington — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 58% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1820 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.