449 Holley Rd · Farmington, ME 04938

$450,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,323 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 103 Days on market

Built 1820 4.86 ac lot $135/sqft · 17% below area Est $543k · 17% under ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +2.9/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Historic 1820 farmhouse on 4.86 +/- serene acres -- a rare blend of original charm and modern upgrades. The main house offers 4 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, many original built-ins, a cozy living room with fireplace, a bright eat-in kitchen, and a cozy dedicated library. Unique period details include an old pipe organ and a secret room tucked behind a bookshelf. Major recent mechanical and structural updates provide peace of mind: newer roof, updated high-efficiency heating system, new exterior paint, rebuilt chimneys, and a new foundation creating an extensive dry basement ready for storage or future finishing. Attached but private, a 1 bed / 1 bath apartment with its own entrance is ideal as an in-law suite or rent it out for supplemental income. Outside, the property is perfect for homesteading -- open fields, apple trees, and a farm pond that's beautiful year-round and great for ice skating in winter. A special opportunity for buyers who want historic character plus modern reliability and income or homesteading potential all nestled close to downtown Farmington and just a short drive to Rangeley or Carrabassett Valley to enjoy the mountains.

Key facts

• Original built-ins
• Old pipe organ
• Newer roof

Tags

• HISTORIC FARMHOUSE
• ORIGINAL BUILT-INS
• DEDICATED LIBRARY
• OLD PIPE ORGAN
• SECRET ROOM
• NEWER ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (58.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (54.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (58.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 4.8% in Farmington — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#18 in ME, #1,653 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D-.
• RSU 09 (rural): math 78% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #88 of 112 in ME (top 79%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Mt Blue Middle School (math 78% / reading 79%, grade A+, #69 of 85 statewide, top 82%, 488 students, 50% FRL); Mt Blue High School (math 87% / reading 95%, grade A+, #42 of 108 statewide, top 38%, 733 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 164 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($410k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1820 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $186,970 (58.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 58% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1820 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.18%
• DSCR: 0.37
• GRM: 18.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $542,796
• List price: $450,000
• Delta: -17.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $150,277
• Equity at exit: $405,396

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.10×
• Total profit: $517,169
• Equity at exit: $874,251

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04938

• Home prices YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 18.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,044 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$556 /mo · $6,676/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-1,489

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,929

Max offer price $186,970

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,234	-5% $-1,362	+0% $-1,489	+5% $-1,616	+10% $-1,744
Rent	-10% $-1,650	-5% $-1,570	+0% $-1,489	+5% $-1,408	+10% $-1,327
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,262	-0.5pp $-1,375	base $-1,489	+0.5pp $-1,606	+1.0pp $-1,724

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $450,000 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $450,000 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $450,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $450,000 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $450,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $450,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $450,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $450,000 Active 85 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $450,000 Active 84 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    price $450,000 Active 83 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $472,500 Active 83 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $472,500 Active 82 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $472,500 Active 81 DOM
19. 2026-05-15
    price $472,500 1155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1155 chars)

    Historic 1820 farmhouse on 4.86 +/- serene acres -- a rare blend of original charm and modern upgrades. The main house offers 4 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, many original built-ins, a cozy living room with fireplace, a bright eat-in kitchen, and a cozy dedicated library. Unique period details include an old pipe organ and a secret room tucked behind a bookshelf. Major recent mechanical and structural updates provide peace of mind: newer roof, updated high-efficiency heating system, new exterior paint, rebuilt chimneys, and a new foundation creating an extensive dry basement ready for storage or future finishing. Attached but private, a 1 bed / 1 bath apartment with its own entrance is ideal as an in-law suite or rent it out for supplemental income. Outside, the property is perfect for homesteading -- open fields, apple trees, and a farm pond that's beautiful year-round and great for ice skating in winter. A special opportunity for buyers who want historic character plus modern reliability and income or homesteading potential all nestled close to downtown Farmington and just a short drive to Rangeley or Carrabassett Valley to enjoy the mountains.

20. 2026-05-13
    price $472,500 1155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1155 chars)

    Historic 1820 farmhouse on 4.86 +/- serene acres -- a rare blend of original charm and modern upgrades. The main house offers 4 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, many original built-ins, a cozy living room with fireplace, a bright eat-in kitchen, and a cozy dedicated library. Unique period details include an old pipe organ and a secret room tucked behind a bookshelf. Major recent mechanical and structural updates provide peace of mind: newer roof, updated high-efficiency heating system, new exterior paint, rebuilt chimneys, and a new foundation creating an extensive dry basement ready for storage or future finishing. Attached but private, a 1 bed / 1 bath apartment with its own entrance is ideal as an in-law suite or rent it out for supplemental income. Outside, the property is perfect for homesteading -- open fields, apple trees, and a farm pond that's beautiful year-round and great for ice skating in winter. A special opportunity for buyers who want historic character plus modern reliability and income or homesteading potential all nestled close to downtown Farmington and just a short drive to Rangeley or Carrabassett Valley to enjoy the mountains.

21. 2026-04-08
    price $475,000 1155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1155 chars)

    Historic 1820 farmhouse on 4.86 +/- serene acres -- a rare blend of original charm and modern upgrades. The main house offers 4 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, many original built-ins, a cozy living room with fireplace, a bright eat-in kitchen, and a cozy dedicated library. Unique period details include an old pipe organ and a secret room tucked behind a bookshelf. Major recent mechanical and structural updates provide peace of mind: newer roof, updated high-efficiency heating system, new exterior paint, rebuilt chimneys, and a new foundation creating an extensive dry basement ready for storage or future finishing. Attached but private, a 1 bed / 1 bath apartment with its own entrance is ideal as an in-law suite or rent it out for supplemental income. Outside, the property is perfect for homesteading -- open fields, apple trees, and a farm pond that's beautiful year-round and great for ice skating in winter. A special opportunity for buyers who want historic character plus modern reliability and income or homesteading potential all nestled close to downtown Farmington and just a short drive to Rangeley or Carrabassett Valley to enjoy the mountains.

22. 2026-03-10
    listed $475,000 Active 1155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1155 chars)

    Historic 1820 farmhouse on 4.86 +/- serene acres -- a rare blend of original charm and modern upgrades. The main house offers 4 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, many original built-ins, a cozy living room with fireplace, a bright eat-in kitchen, and a cozy dedicated library. Unique period details include an old pipe organ and a secret room tucked behind a bookshelf. Major recent mechanical and structural updates provide peace of mind: newer roof, updated high-efficiency heating system, new exterior paint, rebuilt chimneys, and a new foundation creating an extensive dry basement ready for storage or future finishing. Attached but private, a 1 bed / 1 bath apartment with its own entrance is ideal as an in-law suite or rent it out for supplemental income. Outside, the property is perfect for homesteading -- open fields, apple trees, and a farm pond that's beautiful year-round and great for ice skating in winter. A special opportunity for buyers who want historic character plus modern reliability and income or homesteading potential all nestled close to downtown Farmington and just a short drive to Rangeley or Carrabassett Valley to enjoy the mountains.

23. 2026-02-27
    soldstatus $575,000 Closed 2074-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2074 chars)

    Step back in time & discover the unmatched character & acreage of this magnificent 1820 Colonial home. Seamlessly blending historic charm w/ modern peace of mind, this property presents a truly rare opportunity. The large main house offers 4 spacious bedrooms, including a cozy library & a hidden secret room, ideal for reading, relaxing, or a touch of mystery all on the 2nd floor. The 1st floor is filled w/ charm & function featuring an eat-in kitchen w/ built-ins & a wood stove, formal dining room, family room, living room w/ fireplace, den, great room, & laundry room. An attached in-law apartment provides a private 5th bedroom, bathroom & kitchen-living room combo w/ a private entrance perfect for extended family, guests, or as a rental opportunity. A full attic offers additional potential for storage or future use. The home boasts a new roof, a new high-efficiency heating system, new chimneys, & a completely new foundation creating a large, dry basement for storage or future finishing. The property itself encompasses an incredible 128 acres of classic New England landscape, accessible from a newly paved road. The acreage is a true haven for nature lovers & outdoor enthusiasts. In the front yard, a charming farm pond is a delightful feature, even offering the unique ability to ice skate during the winter months. The land is a mix of wooded beauty, featuring both a mature pine tree farm & vast stands of hardwood trees. You'll find a network of old trails & logging roads perfect for hiking, snowmobiling, or exploring. Two large fields, one in the front & one behind the house, offer ample space for recreation, gardening, or farming. There are stone walls that meander throughout the property, scattered apple trees provide a seasonal treat, all while abundant wildlife thrives in this natural environment. This is more than a home; it's a legacy waiting for its next steward. All of this just minutes to downtown Farmington, UMF, shopping, restaurants & Titcomb ski slope!

24. 2026-02-20
    status Pending 2074-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2074 chars)

    Step back in time & discover the unmatched character & acreage of this magnificent 1820 Colonial home. Seamlessly blending historic charm w/ modern peace of mind, this property presents a truly rare opportunity. The large main house offers 4 spacious bedrooms, including a cozy library & a hidden secret room, ideal for reading, relaxing, or a touch of mystery all on the 2nd floor. The 1st floor is filled w/ charm & function featuring an eat-in kitchen w/ built-ins & a wood stove, formal dining room, family room, living room w/ fireplace, den, great room, & laundry room. An attached in-law apartment provides a private 5th bedroom, bathroom & kitchen-living room combo w/ a private entrance perfect for extended family, guests, or as a rental opportunity. A full attic offers additional potential for storage or future use. The home boasts a new roof, a new high-efficiency heating system, new chimneys, & a completely new foundation creating a large, dry basement for storage or future finishing. The property itself encompasses an incredible 128 acres of classic New England landscape, accessible from a newly paved road. The acreage is a true haven for nature lovers & outdoor enthusiasts. In the front yard, a charming farm pond is a delightful feature, even offering the unique ability to ice skate during the winter months. The land is a mix of wooded beauty, featuring both a mature pine tree farm & vast stands of hardwood trees. You'll find a network of old trails & logging roads perfect for hiking, snowmobiling, or exploring. Two large fields, one in the front & one behind the house, offer ample space for recreation, gardening, or farming. There are stone walls that meander throughout the property, scattered apple trees provide a seasonal treat, all while abundant wildlife thrives in this natural environment. This is more than a home; it's a legacy waiting for its next steward. All of this just minutes to downtown Farmington, UMF, shopping, restaurants & Titcomb ski slope!

25. 2026-01-19
    historical Active Under Contract 2074-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2074 chars)

    Step back in time & discover the unmatched character & acreage of this magnificent 1820 Colonial home. Seamlessly blending historic charm w/ modern peace of mind, this property presents a truly rare opportunity. The large main house offers 4 spacious bedrooms, including a cozy library & a hidden secret room, ideal for reading, relaxing, or a touch of mystery all on the 2nd floor. The 1st floor is filled w/ charm & function featuring an eat-in kitchen w/ built-ins & a wood stove, formal dining room, family room, living room w/ fireplace, den, great room, & laundry room. An attached in-law apartment provides a private 5th bedroom, bathroom & kitchen-living room combo w/ a private entrance perfect for extended family, guests, or as a rental opportunity. A full attic offers additional potential for storage or future use. The home boasts a new roof, a new high-efficiency heating system, new chimneys, & a completely new foundation creating a large, dry basement for storage or future finishing. The property itself encompasses an incredible 128 acres of classic New England landscape, accessible from a newly paved road. The acreage is a true haven for nature lovers & outdoor enthusiasts. In the front yard, a charming farm pond is a delightful feature, even offering the unique ability to ice skate during the winter months. The land is a mix of wooded beauty, featuring both a mature pine tree farm & vast stands of hardwood trees. You'll find a network of old trails & logging roads perfect for hiking, snowmobiling, or exploring. Two large fields, one in the front & one behind the house, offer ample space for recreation, gardening, or farming. There are stone walls that meander throughout the property, scattered apple trees provide a seasonal treat, all while abundant wildlife thrives in this natural environment. This is more than a home; it's a legacy waiting for its next steward. All of this just minutes to downtown Farmington, UMF, shopping, restaurants & Titcomb ski slope!

26. 2025-10-08
    listed $685,000 Active 2074-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2074 chars)

    Step back in time & discover the unmatched character & acreage of this magnificent 1820 Colonial home. Seamlessly blending historic charm w/ modern peace of mind, this property presents a truly rare opportunity. The large main house offers 4 spacious bedrooms, including a cozy library & a hidden secret room, ideal for reading, relaxing, or a touch of mystery all on the 2nd floor. The 1st floor is filled w/ charm & function featuring an eat-in kitchen w/ built-ins & a wood stove, formal dining room, family room, living room w/ fireplace, den, great room, & laundry room. An attached in-law apartment provides a private 5th bedroom, bathroom & kitchen-living room combo w/ a private entrance perfect for extended family, guests, or as a rental opportunity. A full attic offers additional potential for storage or future use. The home boasts a new roof, a new high-efficiency heating system, new chimneys, & a completely new foundation creating a large, dry basement for storage or future finishing. The property itself encompasses an incredible 128 acres of classic New England landscape, accessible from a newly paved road. The acreage is a true haven for nature lovers & outdoor enthusiasts. In the front yard, a charming farm pond is a delightful feature, even offering the unique ability to ice skate during the winter months. The land is a mix of wooded beauty, featuring both a mature pine tree farm & vast stands of hardwood trees. You'll find a network of old trails & logging roads perfect for hiking, snowmobiling, or exploring. Two large fields, one in the front & one behind the house, offer ample space for recreation, gardening, or farming. There are stone walls that meander throughout the property, scattered apple trees provide a seasonal treat, all while abundant wildlife thrives in this natural environment. This is more than a home; it's a legacy waiting for its next steward. All of this just minutes to downtown Farmington, UMF, shopping, restaurants & Titcomb ski slope!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ME · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,676 · $556/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,676 · $556/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,528
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$6,676
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,962
• − Management: −$1,962
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$26,621
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,389
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,478/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 09
• NCES district ID: 2314809
• Math proficiency: 78% ▲ 48.00%
• Reading proficiency: 82% ▲ 31.00%
• Median HH income: $40,202
• Composite: 66.71/100
• National rank: #409
• State rank: #88 of 112 in ME

Livability — Farmington

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #1653

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,368

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,948 people
• By 2030: 27,889 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 25,275 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 22,770 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 18,980 · -34.4%
• By 2100: 16,816 · -41.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.2) · D 44.8% · R 53.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: -8.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.2 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+5.5 2012: D+18.5 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.53%
• Current HPI: 325.7666
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-31.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $472,500 MREIS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $472,500 MREIS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $475,000 MREIS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $475,000 MREIS
• 2026-02-27 Sold (MLS) $575,000 MREIS
• 2026-02-20 Pending — MREIS
• 2026-01-19 Contingent — MREIS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $685,000 MREIS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,676 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.