4417 Black Forest Way

Gainesville, FL 32605

$234,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,590 sqft · Built 1981 · Townhouse · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,998/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$129
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-6/mo
• Annual: $-70/yr
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.11%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $65,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-70/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (14.9% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: C. W. Norton Elementary School (math 44% / reading 51%, grade D, #1,182 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 598 students, 52% FRL); Westwood Middle School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade C-, #265 of 571 statewide, top 48%, 847 students, 56% FRL); Gainesville High School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #154 of 667 statewide, top 24%, 1,873 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $235k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.