4417 Black Forest Way · Gainesville, FL 32605

$234,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,590 sqft · Townhouse public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1981 2,178 sqft lot $129/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

End unit. Completely repainted, new carpet and windows. Ready to move in! Intimate private courtyard outside the kitchen- perfect for your morning cup of coffee, a place to read or practice your bar-b-que skills. 3 bedrooms and 2 baths upstairs and half bath down. Indoor laundry room. Forest of the Unicorn has great recreation facilities with club house, pool, tennis courts, all in easy walking distance. Extra storage out back. 3-4 Units.

Key facts

• $129 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1981

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association recreation owned; Part of the Forest of the Unicorn/The Lakes development
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Cornerstone Property Management; Monthly HOA fee of $129; HOA covers pool, grounds maintenance, management, and recreational facilities; Community clubhouse, pool, and tennis courts; Pets allowed with breed restrictions; cats and dogs OK

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available and connected; Electricity available and connected; Sewer available and connected
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Two levels; Home faces southwest; Homestead exempt
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of building number 4417
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Living room/dining room combo; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-70/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: C. W. Norton Elementary School (math 44% / reading 51%, grade D, #1,182 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 598 students, 52% FRL); Westwood Middle School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade C-, #265 of 571 statewide, top 48%, 847 students, 56% FRL); Gainesville High School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #154 of 667 statewide, top 24%, 1,873 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $235k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,850 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.11%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-35,553
• Equity at exit: $35,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-19,269
• Equity at exit: $20,310

Cash invested: $65,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32605

• Home prices YoY: -34.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,998 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,511/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$129
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,006

Max offer price $233,872

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $127	-5% $61	+0% $-6	+5% $-72	+10% $-139
Rent	-10% $-164	-5% $-85	+0% $-6	+5% $73	+10% $152
Rate	-1.0pp $112	-0.5pp $54	base $-6	+0.5pp $-67	+1.0pp $-129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,725
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $129 · $1,548/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   price $234,900
3. 2026-04-08
   listed $244,900 Active
4. 2015-05-27
   soldstatus $115,000
5. 2015-05-22
   soldstatus $115,000 442-char remark

   Show marketing remark (442 chars)

   End unit. Completely repainted, new carpet and windows. Ready to move in! Intimate private courtyard outside the kitchen- perfect for your morning cup of coffee, a place to read or practice your bar-b-que skills. 3 bedrooms and 2 baths upstairs and half bath down. Indoor laundry room. Forest of the Unicorn has great recreation facilities with club house, pool, tennis courts, all in easy walking distance. Extra storage out back. 3-4 Units.

6. 2015-04-01
   listed $119,900 442-char remark

   Show marketing remark (442 chars)

   End unit. Completely repainted, new carpet and windows. Ready to move in! Intimate private courtyard outside the kitchen- perfect for your morning cup of coffee, a place to read or practice your bar-b-que skills. 3 bedrooms and 2 baths upstairs and half bath down. Indoor laundry room. Forest of the Unicorn has great recreation facilities with club house, pool, tennis courts, all in easy walking distance. Extra storage out back. 3-4 Units.

7. 2004-08-09
   soldstatus $132,000
8. 2003-04-08
   soldstatus $92,000
9. 1996-07-18
   soldstatus $67,800
10. 1981-03-01
    soldstatus $52,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,511 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,950 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$439/yr (+$37/mo · 29.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,982
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,158
• − Property taxes: −$1,511
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,919
• − Management: −$1,919
• − HOA: −$1,548
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable loss: −$4,080
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$979
• After-tax cash flow: $909/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gainesville, FL
• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 188,348
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,689
• Household income: $86,714
• Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 12% Two or more races 12% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.48%
• Current HPI: 274.157
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.41%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+344.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $234,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Listed $244,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2015-05-22 Sold (MLS) $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-01 Listed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records
• 2003-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 1996-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $67,800 Public Records
• 1981-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $52,800 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,511 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.