14437 Still Meadow Dr S

Houston, TX 77079

$173,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,661/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$907
• Tax + insurance: −$387
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $18/mo
• Annual: $217/yr
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.45%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $48,440

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $173k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($217/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (4.0% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $166k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Spring Branch ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #215 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Thornwood El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 408 students, 88% FRL); Spring Forest Middle (math 39% / reading 44%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 962 students, 56% FRL); Stratford H S (math 52% / reading 59%, grade C, #364 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 2,272 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 243 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.