2421 W Thornton Rd

Show Low, AZ 85901

$349,000F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 660 sqft · Built 2003 · Manufactured · Active · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,825/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax + insurance: −$272
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $-660/mo
• Annual: $-7,925/yr
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.11%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $97,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $349k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-660 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (33.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (47.7% below list).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($318k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $183k (47.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 891 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.