2421 W Thornton Rd · Show Low, AZ 85901

$349,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 660 sqft · Manufactured public records · 99 Days on market

Built 2003 6,443 sqft lot $529/sqft · 84% above area ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This extraordinary home is designed to leave a lasting impression. Picture yourself welcoming spring from the expansive covered deck, surrounded by fresh mountain air and towering pines. Inside, the home opens to a generous living and dining area with soaring vaulted ceilings that create an airy, open feel, complemented by a separate family room perfect for gathering and relaxing. The impressive kitchen offers abundant cabinetry and workspace, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The home features three bedrooms plus a versatile fourth bedroom or office. The luxurious primary suite is a true retreat, complete with a jetted soaking tub, dual bathrooms for added privacy, and a large walk-in closet designed for comfort and convenience. At the front of the home, stairs lead to nearly 800 square feet of basement space ready to be transformed into a workshop, game room, additional living area, storage, or anything your vision desires. Outside, the expansive yard is framed by tall pine trees and provides ample parking for guests, recreational vehicles, and outdoor toys as well as RV parking. With no HOA restrictions, you'll enjoy the freedom to truly make this property your own. Ideally located in Show Low and just steps from Fools Hollow Lake, this home offers the perfect blend of space, serenity, and mountain living your very own retreat in the heart of it all.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Jetted soaking tub
• Abundant cabinetry

Tags

• COVERED DECK
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• JETTED SOAKING TUB
• DUAL BATHROOMS
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-660 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (33.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (47.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (47.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 891 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($318k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,502 (47.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.11%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 15.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $744,079
• List price: $349,000
• Delta: -53.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-98,780
• Equity at exit: $52,037

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-140,842
• Equity at exit: $30,175

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 15.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,825 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,519/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $-660

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,661

Max offer price $232,328

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-463	-5% $-562	+0% $-660	+5% $-759	+10% $-858
Rent	-10% $-805	-5% $-733	+0% $-660	+5% $-588	+10% $-516
Rate	-1.0pp $-485	-0.5pp $-572	base $-660	+0.5pp $-751	+1.0pp $-843

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $349,000 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $349,000 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $349,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $349,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $350,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 79 DOM
17. 2026-02-13
    listed $350,000 Active 1390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1390 chars)

    This extraordinary home is designed to leave a lasting impression. Picture yourself welcoming spring from the expansive covered deck, surrounded by fresh mountain air and towering pines. Inside, the home opens to a generous living and dining area with soaring vaulted ceilings that create an airy, open feel, complemented by a separate family room perfect for gathering and relaxing. The impressive kitchen offers abundant cabinetry and workspace, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The home features three bedrooms plus a versatile fourth bedroom or office. The luxurious primary suite is a true retreat, complete with a jetted soaking tub, dual bathrooms for added privacy, and a large walk-in closet designed for comfort and convenience. At the front of the home, stairs lead to nearly 800 square feet of basement space ready to be transformed into a workshop, game room, additional living area, storage, or anything your vision desires. Outside, the expansive yard is framed by tall pine trees and provides ample parking for guests, recreational vehicles, and outdoor toys as well as RV parking. With no HOA restrictions, you'll enjoy the freedom to truly make this property your own. Ideally located in Show Low and just steps from Fools Hollow Lake, this home offers the perfect blend of space, serenity, and mountain living your very own retreat in the heart of it all.

18. 2026-02-06
    listed $350,000 Active 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    This extraordinary home is designed to leave a lasting impression. Picture yourself welcoming spring from the expansive covered deck, surrounded by fresh mountain air and towering pines. Inside, the home opens to a generous living and dining area with soaring vaulted ceilings that create an airy, open feel, complemented by a separate family room perfect for gathering and relaxing. The impressive kitchen offers abundant cabinetry and workspace, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The home features three bedrooms plus a versatile fourth bedroom or office. The luxurious primary suite is a true retreat, complete with a jetted soaking tub, dual bathrooms for added privacy, and a large walk-in closet designed for comfort and convenience. At the front of the home, stairs lead to

19. 2026-02-01
    historical
20. 2025-12-08
    price $359,000
21. 2025-12-03
    price $359,000
22. 2025-11-06
    listed $373,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,519 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,303 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: +$784/yr (+$65/mo · 51.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$1,519
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,752
• − Management: −$1,752
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$14,570
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,497
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,429/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Show Low Unified District (4393)
• NCES district ID: 0407700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,240
• Composite: 29.9/100
• National rank: #6387
• State rank: #89 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Show Low

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #13573

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Show Low, AZ
• City population: 18,821
• Population (ZIP): 18,821

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-6.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Listed $350,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $350,000 WMMLS
• 2026-02-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $359,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $359,000 WMMLS
• 2025-11-06 Listed $373,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,519 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.