3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,278 sqft ·
Built 1962
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 377 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,305/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$519
Tax + insurance
−$177
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$274
Net cashflow
$335/mo
Annual
$4,020/yr
Cap rate
10.35%
Cash-on-cash
14.50%
DSCR
1.65
1% rule
1.32%
Cash to close
$27,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $335 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
It's been on market 377 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $6k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#739 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
Beaumont ISD (urban): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #789 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 5.3% in Beaumont — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $1,305/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($32k/yr) (locally 657% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 377 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29