55 Payn Ave

Chatham, NY 12037

$211,500D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,314 sqft · Built 1921 · SingleFamily · Pending · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,930/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,109
• Tax + insurance: −$607
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-191/mo
• Annual: $-2,297/yr
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.88%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $59,220

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $212k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (8.7% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $178k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#686 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-; Watch: employment C-, cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Chatham Central School District (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #353 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mary E Dardess Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 360 students, 45% FRL); Chatham Middle School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D+, #315 of 729 statewide, top 45%, 186 students, 44% FRL); Chatham High School (math 92% / reading 75%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 323 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 26% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.5% in Chatham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.