55 Payn Ave · Chatham, NY 12037

$211,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,314 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1921 1.00 ac lot ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming cape on one acre with a detached garage. Lots of room to spread out on this property. 4 Bedrooms 2 Baths on a fenced in lot. Inside has high ceilings and a beautiful stone fireplace, there is a crawl space basement and attic. Lots of original features, including beautiful inlaid wood flooring and wood trim. Detached oversized garage and 2 enclosed porches wrap up this gem.

Key facts

• Wood trim
• Crawl space basement
• Stone fireplace

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• FENCED IN LOT
• STONE FIREPLACE
• CRAWL SPACE BASEMENT
• INLAID WOOD FLOORING
• WOOD TRIM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $212k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.5% in Chatham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#686 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-; Watch: employment C-, cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Chatham Central School District (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #353 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mary E Dardess Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 360 students, 45% FRL); Chatham Middle School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D+, #315 of 729 statewide, top 45%, 186 students, 44% FRL); Chatham High School (math 92% / reading 75%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 323 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 26% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,689 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.88%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $650,234
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
65 High St	0.68mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,242 (-3%)	1mo	$629,000	$281	55
7 Railroad Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,264 (-2%)	6mo	$425,000	$188	52
1582 State Route 203	0.43mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,050 (-11%)	10mo	$679,000	$331	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $103,184
• Equity at exit: $190,536

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.30×
• Total profit: $313,814
• Equity at exit: $410,898

Cash invested: $59,220 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12037

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,930 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,109
• Tax from tax record: −$519 /mo · $6,226/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,172

Max offer price $177,689

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-72	-5% $-132	+0% $-191	+5% $-251	+10% $-311
Rent	-10% $-344	-5% $-268	+0% $-191	+5% $-115	+10% $-39
Rate	-1.0pp $-85	-0.5pp $-138	base $-191	+0.5pp $-246	+1.0pp $-302

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,875
• Closing costs: $6,345
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-17
   status Active
4. 2026-03-17
   price $211,500
5. 2026-02-12
   status Pending
6. 2026-01-28
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2026-01-16
   listed $235,000 Active
8. 2025-01-21
   status Pending
9. 2025-01-15
   historical
10. 2024-09-23
    status Active
11. 2024-08-22
    historical Contingent
12. 2024-07-22
    listed $325,000 Active
13. 2024-07-21
    listed $325,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,226 · $519/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,226 · $519/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,160
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,847
• − Property taxes: −$6,226
• − Insurance: −$1,058
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,853
• − Management: −$1,853
• − Depreciation: −$6,153
• Taxable loss: −$5,829
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,399
• After-tax cash flow: $-898/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chatham Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607110
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $61,460
• Composite: 44.28/100
• National rank: #2835
• State rank: #353 of 590 in NY

Livability — Chatham

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #686
• US rank: #12965

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chatham, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,045

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.31%
• Current HPI: 419.8449
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-34.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2026-03-27 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2026-03-17 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $211,500 HVCRMLS
• 2026-02-12 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2026-01-28 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $235,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-01-21 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-01-15 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2024-09-23 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2024-08-22 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2024-07-22 Listed $325,000 Global MLS
• 2024-07-21 Listed $325,000 HVCRMLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,226 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.