13006 Jenkins Pit Rd

Loxley, AL 36527

$359,000D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,366 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Active · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,410/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,883
• Tax + insurance: −$438
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-417/mo
• Annual: $-5,001/yr
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.98%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $100,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $359k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-417 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (32.9% below list).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $241k (32.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#95 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stonebridge Elementary (509 students, 18% FRL); Spanish Fort Middle School (math 38% / reading 70%, grade B-, #20 of 257 statewide, top 8%, 622 students, 28% FRL); Spanish Fort High School (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #25 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 1,188 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 38% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 332 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $183k; list at $359k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.