13006 Jenkins Pit Rd · Loxley, AL 36527

$359,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,366 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1998 4.00 ac lot $152/sqft · 16% below area Est $428k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a versatile property with endless potential? This 4-acre lot in Spanish Fort, AL offers the perfect blend of residential comfort, business opportunity, and storage space. Whether you want a peaceful retreat, room to expand a business, or a place for boats and RVs, this property delivers. Property Features:• 4 Acres of Prime Land – Spacious and adaptable for residential, agricultural, or commercial use. • Greenhouse Opportunity – Includes over 1,200 sq. ft. of covered storage and 17,000 sq. ft. of greenhouse space with approximately 3,000 hydroponic pots. Ideal for growers, garden centers, or agricultural ventures. • Commercial Potential – Unzoned

Key facts

• Commercial potential
• Prime location
• Ample storage

Tags

• 4 ACRES OF PRIME LAND
• GREENHOUSE OPPORTUNITY
• COMMERCIAL POTENTIAL
• AMPLE STORAGE
• PRIME LOCATION
• DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No community features; No transfer fees

Exterior

• Parking: See remarks for parking details
• Utilities: Utilities: see remarks
• Home design: One-story property; Resale condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding and block construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Lot features: see remarks; No waterfront; Full ownership

Interior

• Flooring: Other flooring (see remarks)
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump for heating and cooling; Heat pump provides cooling
• Interior features: No fireplace; Other appliances (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $359k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-417 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (32.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (32.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#95 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stonebridge Elementary (509 students, 18% FRL); Spanish Fort Middle School (math 38% / reading 70%, grade B-, #20 of 257 statewide, top 8%, 622 students, 28% FRL); Spanish Fort High School (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #25 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 1,188 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 38% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 332 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $183k; list at $359k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,038 (32.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.98%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $427,735
• List price: $359,000
• Delta: -16.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12927 Sanderling Loop	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,289 (-3%)	3mo	$339,900	$148	58
13432 Monticello Blvd	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,289 (-3%)	3mo	$384,000	$168	53
31743 Memphis Loop	0.47mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,637 (+12%)	1mo	$398,000	$151	51
31847 Lyon Rd	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,031 (-14%)	2mo	$356,650	$176	48
31579 Lyon Rd	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,031 (-14%)	1mo	$360,558	$178	47
31347 Marseille Ct	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,250 (-5%)	5mo	$375,000	$167	45
31889 Lyon Rd	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,031 (-14%)	3mo	$353,900	$174	45
13355 Ibis Blvd	0.70mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,630 (+11%)	1mo	$560,000	$213	41
31554 Lyon Rd	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,031 (-14%)	3mo	$358,648	$177	40
32220 Lyon Rd	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,031 (-14%)	5mo	$357,308	$176	38
32264 Lyon Rd	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,031 (-14%)	4mo	$360,308	$177	37
13406 Monticello Blvd	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,047 (-14%)	5mo	$368,000	$180	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-75,942
• Equity at exit: $53,528

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-61,569
• Equity at exit: $31,040

Cash invested: $100,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36527

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 332
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,410 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,883
• Tax from tax record: −$289 /mo · $3,465/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-417

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,938

Max offer price $285,373

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-214	-5% $-315	+0% $-417	+5% $-518	+10% $-620
Rent	-10% $-607	-5% $-512	+0% $-417	+5% $-322	+10% $-226
Rate	-1.0pp $-236	-0.5pp $-325	base $-417	+0.5pp $-510	+1.0pp $-604

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,750
• Closing costs: $10,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31697 Lyon Rd Spanish Fort, AL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,500	$1.40	23d	1	0.41mi
31448 Memphis Loop Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	2033	$2,400	$1.18	15d	1	0.52mi
31573 Shearwater Dr Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	1830	$1,995	$1.09	23d	1	0.57mi
31407 Montalto Ct Daphne, AL	4.0	3.0	2796	$2,700	$0.97	15d	1	0.57mi
12941 Sanderling Loop Daphne, AL	4.0	3.0	2536	$2,695	$1.06	23d	1	0.61mi
31566 Spoonbill Rd Daphne, AL	4.0	3.0	2970	$2,800	$0.94	15d	1	0.67mi
13522 Monticello Blvd Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	2318	$2,700	$1.16	23d	1	0.70mi
31399 Spoonbill Rd Daphne, AL	4.0	3.5	2567	$2,995	$1.17	23d	1	0.80mi
13445 Antler Hill Rd Spanish Fort, AL	4.0	2.0	1921	$2,100	$1.09	45d	1	1.19mi
12914 Churchill Dr Unit B Spanish Fort, AL	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,680	$1.05	23d	1	1.34mi
13708 Antler Hill Rd Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	1948	$2,300	$1.18	45d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $359,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $359,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $359,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $359,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $359,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $359,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $359,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $359,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $359,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $359,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $359,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $359,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $359,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $359,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $359,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $359,000 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $359,000 Active 25 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $359,000 Active 24 DOM
19. 2026-05-06
    listed $359,000 Active 2111-char remark
20. 2019-04-04
    soldstatus $183,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,465 · $289/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,465 · $289/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,925
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,110
• − Property taxes: −$3,465
• − Insurance: −$1,795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,314
• − Management: −$2,314
• − Depreciation: −$10,444
• Taxable loss: −$11,517
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,764
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,237/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Loxley

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #11346

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Loxley, AL
• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 21,765
• Household income: $120,189
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.56%
• Current HPI: 234.5113
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.52%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+96.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $359,000 BCAR
• 2019-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $183,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+26.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,465 · +11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.